A trend of daily peak SA ‘Market Demand’– from 1st January 2008 to 11th February 2025

Posted by Paul McArdle Wednesday, February 12 2025 Topic: Growth in peak demand

In the past couple weeks, we have already published two similar articles:

… so today we post the third in the series, given that today ‘… could be a big day for ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia’, with ‘Market Demand’ potentially as high as 3,200MW as noted in that article.

 

(A)  Another reminder about the complexity of measuring ‘Demand’ …

…. because it’s not as simple as some might initially think.

Note this ‘A brief reminder about the complexity of measuring ‘Demand’ …’ here.

With this in mind, let’s look on….

 

(B)  A long-range trend of daily peak

So utilising the ‘Trends Engine’ within ez2view we’ve put the following trend together, showing both ‘Market Demand’ and ‘Operational Demand’ (noting that reconstructing an estimate of ‘Underlying Demand’ over such a long time range is more complex and we don’t have time to do this today for this brief article.

 

2025-02-12-ez2view-Trends-SA-DailyPeakDemand

Remember to click on the image for a larger-resolution view.

For ease of reference, I’ve added a horizontal line:

1)   at 3,000MW (only 22 days have seen higher since 1st Jan 2008)
               … so that’s in the past > 17 years

2)  but I should have added a horizontal line at 3,200MW (only 5 days have seen higher … in 6,252 days (so 0.080% incidence)

 

(C)  A tabular listing of some of those high demand days

With the above chart as a reference, here’s some of the high points in each year noted (with some linked to articles written at the time).

 

Year Brief Explanation of the top demand days (in South Australia) in each year,
in terms of ‘Market Demand’

2008

1 day over 3,000MW:

  • Mon 17th March 2008 (3,102MW)

2009

3 days over 3,200MW in January 2009:

  • Wed 28th January 2009 (3,347 MW).
  • Thu 29th Jan 2009 (3,329 MW), which was:
    • … still highest day ever in Victoria, and NEM-wide and
    • third highest day in South Australia
  • Fri 30th Jan 2009 (3,239 MW).

plus 3 other days over 3,000MW

2010

3 days over 3,000MW:

  • Mon 11th Jan 2010 (3,161 MW)
  • Tue 9th Feb 2010 (3,144 MW)
  • Wed 10th Feb 2010 (3,049 MW)

2011

1 day over 3,200MW:

  • Monday 31st January 2011 (3,402 MW … still the highest day ever in South Australia)

2012

0 days over 3,000MW

2013

2 days over 3,000MW:

  • 7th January 2013 (3,074 MW)
  • 17th January 2013 (3,005 MW)

2014

2 high days in January 2014:

  • Wed 15th Jan 2014 (3,069 MW)
  • Thu 16th Jan 2014 (3,259 MW)

… plus:

  • Tue 11th Feb 2014 (3,012 MW)

2015

0 days over 3,000MW

2016

0 days over 3,000MW

2017

1 day over 3,000MW:

  • Wed 8th Feb 2017 (3,077 MW)

2018

0 days over 3,000MW

2019

2 days over 3,000MW:

  • Thu 24th Jan 2019 (3,021 MW)
  • Thu 19th Dec 2019 (3,120MW)

2020

January 2020 saw :

  • Thu 30th January 2020 saw 3,097 MW… a day we wrote many articles about

2021

0 days over 3,000MW

2022

0 days over 3,000MW

2023

1 day over 3,000MW:

  • Thursday 23rd Feb 2023 (3,142 MW)

2024

0 days over 3,000MW

2025 ytd

This year is only very young … only 1 month + a few days old.

 

So let’s wait to see what unfolds…

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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