AEMO updates its forecasts for MSL1 in Victoria for coming days ….

‘Speak of the devil’?!

This evening we have noted that ‘AEMO publishes an overview of their ‘Minimum System Load procedure’ for Victoria’.

AEMO forecasts for the coming days …

This afternoon there was a barrage of alerts from ez2view, letting us know of a number of market developments – including three Market Notices relating to forecasts for MSL1 in the coming days…

Sat 2nd November 2024

There already had been forecasts for MSL1 for tomorrow (Saturday 2nd November) – but these were updated via MN119742 at 16:13 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

 From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/11/2024     16:13:32

 ——————————————————————-

 Notice ID               :         119742
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         01/11/2024
External Reference      :         Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 02/11/2024

 ——————————————————————-

 Reason :

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Update to Market Notice 119644 – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 02/11/2024.

 Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o    MSL1 – 1685 MW
o    MSL2 – 1185 MW
o    MSL3 – 685 MW

 The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:

 From 1030 hrs to 1400 hrs 02/11/2024. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1304 MW at 1230 hrs.

 Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/market-data-nemweb .

 AEMO Operations

 ——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

Sun 3rd November 2024

There already had been forecasts for MSL1 for Sunday 3rd November – but these were updated via MN119741 at 16:10 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/11/2024     16:10:05

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         119741
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         01/11/2024
External Reference      :         Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 03/11/2024

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 03/11/2024.

Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o    MSL1 – 1795 MW
o    MSL2 – 1295 MW
o    MSL3 – 795 MW

The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:

From 1130 hrs to 1330 hrs 03/11/2024. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1684 MW at 1300 hrs.

Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/market-data-nemweb .

AEMO Operations

 ——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

Tuesday 5th November 2024 (Melbourne Cup Day)

There already had been forecasts for MSL1 for Tuesday 5th November (i.e. Melbourne Cup Day) – but these were updated via MN119743 at 16:14 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/11/2024     16:14:34

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         119743
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         01/11/2024
External Reference      :         Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 05/11/2024

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Update to Market Notice 119682 – AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 05/11/2024.

Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o    MSL1 – 1535 MW
o    MSL2 – 1035 MW
o    MSL3 – 535 MW

The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:

From 1000 hrs to 1430 hrs 05/11/2024. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1106 MW at 1300 hrs.

Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/market-data-nemweb .

AEMO Operations

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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

Basslink back online.

Worth a short note (relevant to the above) that Basslink has returned to service this evening – after the Market Notices were issued, but with the RTS already factored into AEMO’s forecasts for levels of MSL:

This is shown above in a collage of ez2view widgets.