A short article noting that today (Monday 7th October 2024) the AEMO has issued Market Notices declaring risk of ‘Minimum System Load’ in the Victorian region for the upcoming weekend, as follows:
| Saturday 12th October 2024 | Sunday 13th October 2024 |
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At 14:48 on Monday 7th October 2024 the AEMO published MN118646 looking forward to Saturday 12th October 2024: ——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 118646 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region from 1200 hrs 12/10/2024 to 1400 hrs 12/10/2024. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1646 MW at 1300 hrs, and the advisory threshold is: o MSL1 – 1815 MW MSL events are forecast when forecast regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The forecast regional demand is below the MSL1 threshold. AEMO Operations ——————————————————————- Note the 2 hour timespan of the alert condition here. |
At 14:49 on Monday 7th October 2024 the AEMO published MN118646 looking forward to Sunday 13th October 2024: ‘——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 118645 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region from 1100 hrs 13/10/2024 to 1400 hrs 13/10/2024. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1623 MW at 1300 hrs, and the advisory threshold is: o MSL1 – 1865 MW MSL events are forecast when forecast regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The forecast regional demand is below the MSL1 threshold. AEMO Operations ——————————————————————- Note the longer (3-hour) timespan of the alert here. |
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Both of these timespans are within the current view of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within ez2view when selecting the ‘Total Demand’ series, as we see here… Remember that this widget enables the user to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to see ‘that other dimension of time’. |
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In the case of Saturday 12th October 2024 we’ve zoomed in the ‘Grid View’ to highlight just the couple most recent ST PASA data updates for the period of lowest demand forecasts for that day, and highlighted the 4 half hours that we believe have triggered
Click on the image to open in larger-screen view. |
In the case of Sunday 13th October 2024 we’ve zoomed in the ‘Grid View’ to highlight just the couple most recent ST PASA data updates for the period of lowest demand forecasts for that day, and highlighted the 4 half hours that we believe have triggered
Click on the image to open in larger-screen view. |
Note that the ‘Widget Guide’ for this widget (under the ‘?’ button that’s top right of the widget for clients) notes that the ‘ST PASA’ tab matches together the following two series under the ‘Total Demand’ label:
‘STPASA – STPASA_REGIONSOLUTION.DEMAND50 & PREDISPATCHREGIONSUM.TOTALDEMAND’
However note that:
1) The last experience of the AEMO issuing these types of alerts (i.e. for Friday 27th September 2024 and Saturday 28th September 2024) suggested that, once we get into the P30 predispatch time horizon:
(a) the AEMO is using slightly different data series that that shown in this function of the widget.
(b) remember all the gory details of sooo many definitions of ‘demand’
(c) what this means is that (we believe) this particular function on the the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within ez2view when selecting the ‘Total Demand’ series will only be relevant to the AEMO’s own alerts for:
i. Only until 12:00 on Thursday 10th September 2024 for Saturday 12th October 2024
… i.e. after ‘Gate Closure #1’ the AEMO will flip into P30 predispatch
ii. Only until 12:00 on Friday 11th September 2024 for Sunday 13th October 2024.
2) We’re working with the AEMO to ascertain the specifics in order to ensure we have one function of this widget that represents correctly (across all time ranges) the specific definition of ‘System Load’ that the AEMO is referring to when it issues these alerts.
(a) when we know what this is, we’ll add in a new selection for clients in the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within ez2view
(b) perhaps we might just call this ‘System Load’ given the language of the alerts
Stay tuned….
Looks like there might be a minimum load condition at about 13:30 AEDT today Wednesday 9 October? Prices on the AEMO NEM dashboard are showing as being ‘under revision’.