Looking forward into the week ahead in SA … living on the island

Fourth quick article today to include this screen grab of the live updating trend widget from ez2view, looking forward 7 days into what’s forecast for the South Australian region at a high level:

Those with their own licence to the ez2view software (installed and online) can open a copy of this trend widget in their browser here.

I’ve highlighted three things:

1)  I’ve highlighted where current expectations are that Heywood will be back in service around sunset on Friday 18th November;

2)  I’ve highlighted the many different periods where the SA price is forecast (under the GPG run) to be above $550/MWh over the week ahead:

(a)  Note that this type of boom-bust cycle is pretty typical of the GPG run, so take with a grain of salt

(b)  Where it might be useful is just indicating the periods where (if the forecast demand and forecast wind and solar capability hold true) ordinarily you’d see higher chance of higher prices.

(c)  However it’s important to remember that this week might see periods of ‘too much of a good thing’ (such as today and the curtailment of rooftop PV to help reinforce system security).

3)  Assuming it’s the low points in VRE production that might be one point of challenge, the current forecast has that the lowest point will be around 06:00 NEM time on Wednesday morning 16th November 2022.

All things to keep an eye on….