A quick update using the following NEM-Watch snapshot from 11:10 NEM time (so 12:10 in NSW):
As annotated on the snapshot, the AEMO’s current run of predispatch forecasts (updated every half-an hour) show an increase on the demand forecast noted earlier today – with the current expectation being a new record Scheduled Demand up at 11,734MW for NSW at 16:30 NEM time (so 17:30 Sydney daylight savings time).
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
Through the week we’ve seen new highs for wind production (NEM-wide) and also some low levels of production, as well – mirroring the political debate. The challenge has serious implications, however, and the AEMO sessions mentioned might be one way to learn more.
Following yesterday’s warnings about the potential for a tight supply/demand balance in South Australia this week, it was not really a surprise when the SMS alerts from NEM-Watch began buzzing for the 07:20 dispatch interval this morning (NEM time), highlighting that the dispatch price in SA had jumped to $12,199.20/MWh. This has continued through the morning.
On 19th January, high prices were sustained in SA for several hours, bringing the Cumulative Price within a whisker of the $150,000 threshold, at which prices would be capped.
1 Commenton "[2nd update] AEMO forecast for peak NSW demand this afternoon now would be new record"
As always there will be blame games, South Australia’s problems are home grown with renewable energy and poorly performing gas markets have taken their toll there.
But all in all, it is just too darn hot and AEMO have a tough 3 days ahead. Good luck.
As always there will be blame games, South Australia’s problems are home grown with renewable energy and poorly performing gas markets have taken their toll there.
But all in all, it is just too darn hot and AEMO have a tough 3 days ahead. Good luck.