[2nd update] AEMO forecast for peak NSW demand this afternoon now would be new record

Posted by Paul McArdleFriday 10th February 2017  11:21 AM   Topic: Uncategorized

A quick update using the following NEM-Watch snapshot from 11:10 NEM time (so 12:10 in NSW):

2017-02-10-at-11-10-NEMwatch-NSWforecast

As annotated on the snapshot, the AEMO’s current run of predispatch forecasts (updated every half-an hour) show an increase on the demand forecast noted earlier today – with the current expectation being a new record Scheduled Demand up at 11,734MW for NSW at 16:30 NEM time (so 17:30 Sydney daylight savings time).

Note that around this time is when solar PV production peaks in the state and thereafter will decline (initially slowly, but then increasingly rapidly into the afternoon as noted here).  This is one reason why we’ll see peak Scheduled Demand later in the afternoon today.

It might be a new record (barring any load shedding – which no-one wants to see happen).

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!

Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.

1 Comment on "[2nd update] AEMO forecast for peak NSW demand this afternoon now would be new record"

  1. Nathan | Friday, February 10 2017 at 1:24 pm | Reply

    As always there will be blame games, South Australia’s problems are home grown with renewable energy and poorly performing gas markets have taken their toll there.

    But all in all, it is just too darn hot and AEMO have a tough 3 days ahead. Good luck.

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