A quick update using the following NEM-Watch snapshot from 11:10 NEM time (so 12:10 in NSW):
As annotated on the snapshot, the AEMO’s current run of predispatch forecasts (updated every half-an hour) show an increase on the demand forecast noted earlier today – with the current expectation being a new record Scheduled Demand up at 11,734MW for NSW at 16:30 NEM time (so 17:30 Sydney daylight savings time).
Note that around this time is when solar PV production peaks in the state and thereafter will decline (initially slowly, but then increasingly rapidly into the afternoon as noted here). This is one reason why we’ll see peak Scheduled Demand later in the afternoon today.
It might be a new record (barring any load shedding – which no-one wants to see happen).
As always there will be blame games, South Australia’s problems are home grown with renewable energy and poorly performing gas markets have taken their toll there.
But all in all, it is just too darn hot and AEMO have a tough 3 days ahead. Good luck.