Summer has been and gone (and the winner of our BBQ as the “Best Demand Forecaster in the NEM” will be determined next week) but we could not help but note the elevated temperatures across Victoria and South Australia today awakening demand in those regions from the slumber of the past couple weeks.
In this snapshot from NEM-Watch this afternoon, we see how the demand in both regions has advanced into the yellow zone and, as a result of limitations on the import capability from Tasmania and NSW, the Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) for the “Economic Island” of VIC+SA dropping below 15%. Prices, as a result of the tighter supply/demand balance, are elevated.
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients.
Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.
With only 4 days remaining (till Fri 9th Jan) here’s some tips about what the peak NEM-wide demand might be this summer, to help you submit your forecast before the deadline.
Some initial analysis looking into the question of whether the increased penetration of solar PV is increasing the variability of scheduled demand to the point that generators can exert more pressure on spot prices.
Re the IRPM I followed the link to the Nem Watch glossary. Unfortunately it no longer provides a formally definition of the IRPM nor a formula. Would you let me know where I can find one?
IRPM translates the measure of RPM (traditionally used in a longer-term planning context) to real time:
IRPM = (Total Available Generation – Total Demand)/(Total Demand)
Within an Economic Island we substitute:
IRPM ei = (Total Available Generation – Net Demand)/(Net Demand)
where Net Demand = Demand in regions within the Economic Island + Net Exports, which are supplied by the local generators.
Re the IRPM I followed the link to the Nem Watch glossary. Unfortunately it no longer provides a formally definition of the IRPM nor a formula. Would you let me know where I can find one?
Regards
Hi Romek
Thanks for pointing this out – this information provides an explanation of the family of bar charts shown:
http://v8.nem-watch.info/help/islands/graphs.asp
IRPM translates the measure of RPM (traditionally used in a longer-term planning context) to real time:
IRPM = (Total Available Generation – Total Demand)/(Total Demand)
Within an Economic Island we substitute:
IRPM ei = (Total Available Generation – Net Demand)/(Net Demand)
where Net Demand = Demand in regions within the Economic Island + Net Exports, which are supplied by the local generators.
Does this help?
Paul