Spot Price volatility in QLD and NSW on Friday 26th May 2023
Continuing the recent run of volatility in QLD and NSW, another bout (albeit shorter) on Friday 26th May 2023.
Vedran’s note today, about ‘more wind than hydro in Tasmania’ for early morning Thursday 25th May 2023
Prompted by a LinkedIn update by Vedran Kovac (at Hydro Tasmania) we’ve taken a quick look at the supply mix in Tasmania during the current week.
Spot market volatility on Thursday 25th May 2023 (and Actual LOR2 in NSW)
The sun’s gone down on Thursday 25th May 2023, and prices have spiked (as in recent days).
AEMO declares Scheduling Error (incident #54) with respect to post-Liddell snag
AEMO has confirmed our earlier hunch of a Scheduling Error in the immediate aftermath of the Liddell unit retirements.
An imminent improvement to the bidding and dispatch process for Semi-Scheduled units
AEMO is re-enabling the ‘MaxAvail’ figure in bids for Semi-Scheduled units. It will act as a limit on capacity available, feeding into the NEMDE dispatch process for the unit. We look at how Semi-Scheduled plant have currently been treating MaxAvail in the bid and share some insights.
(Early!) winter evening volatility returns to QLD and NSW on Wednesday 24th May 2023
A quick article to capture volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday evening 24th May 2023.
IRPM drops below 15% on Tuesday 23rd May 2023
A short article this evening noting IRPM has dropped below 15% on a NEM-wide basis (a tight supply-demand balance).
AEMO’s MMS 5.2, ez2view v9.7, Semi-Scheduled MaxAvail in the Bid, and a self-forecasting example
Today (Tue 23rd May) is the go-live date for AEMO’s EMMS v5.2 – which will contain new data for some market enhancements. Here’s a quick look at where this first change will appear in ez2view, highlighting some considerations for Semi-Scheduled units and self-forecasting.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Saturday 20th May 2023
A short article to mark an evening burst of volatility in QLD and NSW, with VIC1-NSW1 again constrained.
Brief burst of volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday 17th May 2023
A short article to record evening price volatility in NSW and QLD on Wednesday 17th May 2023
Too Early to Say?
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, publishes some analysis for WattClarity on price and generation mix changes apparent in the NEM coincident with (but not wholly caused by) the closure of the last remaining units at Liddell Power Station.
We’re not building enough replacement dispatchable capacity
With completion of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 approaching, and following some conversations recently (and probably this week at EUAA Conference) here are two charts looking backwards just at fully dispatchable plant that highlight one of the ways in which ‘the level of risk in the NEM is escalating’.
How dispatch works … it’s much more than just a bid stack
New guest author, Ryan Esplin progressively builds a more precise model of the NEMDE dispatch process to illustrate why the stylised ‘Merit Order’ bid stack model is increasingly not enough to explain dispatch and price outcomes in the NEM
NEMwide IRPM drops below 15% (at 17:55) on Wednesday 10th May 2023
The IRPM has dropped below 15% across the NEM on Wednesday 10th May 2023 … first time this has happened since the stressful winter 2022.
Renewable curtailment – forced and not quite so forced
Inspired by the recent article by Tristan Edis (who referenced the GSD2022 in analysis of curtailment of some wind and solar farms), Allan O’Neil follows on with more analysis of the two main types of curtailment. Allan differentiates these as ‘forced curtailment’ and ‘economic offloading’
Currently forecast LOR2 for South Australia for Wednesday 10th May 2023
A first look at a forecast for tight supply-demand conditions for South Australia on Wednesday 10th May 2023.
Liddell’s ghost stalks the market
During early morning Monday 1st May prices spiked in the NSW quite unexpectedly. Guest author Allan O’Neil takes us into the complexities of the EMMS and NEMDE to help us understand the mechanics of how this happened.
AEMC publishes Rule Determination for amending the (earlier published) IESS Rule
A short, belated (and back-dated) article about the change to the original IESS Rule.
A spike at 16:15 hints at volatility to resume in SA with the sun setting, on Thursday 4th May 2023
A second article today about volatility in South Australia
AEMO preliminary report on VIC region suspension (loss of SCADA) on 22nd April
Here’s where to find AEMO’s preliminary report on the loss of SCADA on 22nd April 2023 in Victoria that led to that region being suspended for more than 24 hours.