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Paul McArdle Monday, June 13 2022

The yo-yo cases of Available Generation in the QLD region through Sunday 12th June and Monday 13th June 2022

A quick tabular list of the 7 cases overnight where QLD saw ‘Actual LOR2’ and/or yo-yo Available Generation


Paul McArdle Monday, June 13 2022

AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding this evening is up to 1,454MW (i.e. about the size of Brisbane)

AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding in QLD this evening is for an enormous amount (1,454MW)


Paul McArdle Monday, June 13 2022

AEMO’s forecast for load shedding in QLD on Monday evening grows more severe

Forecast load shedding in QLD this evening is growing more severe…


Paul McArdle Monday, June 13 2022

Desperate times call for desperate measures on Monday 13th June 2022 (constraints violating … increased risk of Voltage Collapse)

Here’s one example of the steps being taken by AEMO (which would ordinarily be considered as not advisable) to match supply and demand in the NEM (and particularly the QLD region) with Administered Pricing at play.


Paul McArdle Monday, June 13 2022

AEMO forecasts LOR3 (i.e. controlled Load Shedding) for QLD on Monday evening 13th June 2022

AEMO’s now forecasting load shedding for this evening … Monday 13th June 2022


Paul McArdle Monday, June 13 2022

With Administered Pricing in QLD, overnight NEM activity enters the rabbit hole

First article on Monday 13th June 2022 with QLD under Administered Pricing – looking at not only QLD but also strange outcomes everywhere else…


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

Bizarre pricing continues outside of the QLD region

At 22:40 the price exceeds $10,000/MWh in NSW, VIC and SA … with QLD under Administered Pricing.


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

For the 3rd time this evening … QLD at an ‘Actual LOR2’ warning level

Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

After AP is imposed in QLD, volatility started elsewhere

Volatility has ramped up in NSW, VIC, SA and TAS (particularly SA) with QLD under Administered Pricing.


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

With reserves in QLD wafer thin, here’s an ez2view of what’s running and what’s not…

Fifth article on Sunday 12th June takes a quick look at what’s on (and what’s not) in QLD this evening under AP with very tight margins.


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

Under Administered Pricing = QLD Actual LOR2, very low IRPM, and so Market Direction

Sunday evening 12th June in QLD and it’s getting very, very tight…


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

South Australia spikes, with Heywood unconstrained … with QLD under Administered Pricing

A follow-on from Administered Pricing in QLD is the start of some head-scratching market outcomes … such as this spike in South Australia.


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

QLD volatility Sunday evening explodes past the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT)

A quick article Sunday evening as the Cumulative Price for the QLD region skyrockets ever so close to the Cumulative Price Threshold…


Paul McArdle Sunday, June 12 2022

Severe weather in TAS causes disconnects customer load – and coincides with transmission line trips

Recap of some transmission trips overnight in TAS … coincident with severe weather.


Paul McArdle Saturday, June 11 2022

Reviewing the 500MW drop in Available Generation in QLD on Friday evening 10th June 2022

A Saturday afternoon initial review of what’s visible in ‘Next Day Public’ data via ez2view to look at the causes behind the unexpected 500MW drop in Available Generation capacity in the QLD region (which was one factor in the triggering of the ‘Actual LOR2’ warning from the AEMO)


Paul McArdle Friday, June 10 2022

Four hours at above $1,000/MWh drives Cumulative Price well above $1,100,000 and close to Cumulative Price Threshold in QLD on Friday evening 10th June 2022

A later article reviewing how Cumulative Price in Queensland has jumped upwards this evening (towards the CPT) as a result of a solid four hours above $1,000/MWh.


Paul McArdle Friday, June 10 2022

Friday evening volatility in the QLD Region (escalated to actual LOR2)

Price volatility has returned to the QLD region on Friday evening 10th June 2022.


Allan O'Neil Friday, June 10 2022

A closer look at coal-fired generation availability

Tweet at your own peril A quick mea culpa: after squinting at an ez2view layout early this morning I dashed off a tweet suggesting that six of AGL Energy’s eleven coal-fired generation units were offline – three at Bayswater, two…


Paul McArdle Friday, June 10 2022

Friday (10th June) morning volatility in QLD and NSW

A brief note about this morning’s volatility.


Paul McArdle Thursday, June 9 2022

Brisbane’s week is ‘Coldest in 118 years’ … what is the outlook for electricity demand?

A news article this morning along the lines of ‘coldest in 100 years’ jumped out at me.


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