Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
All Posts
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch interval that afternoon.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused on the NSW region.
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Across 188 Semi-Scheduled DUIDs – Dispatch Error at 16:15 on Monday 26th May 2025
This is my second article today relating to events on Monday 26th May 2025 - with this article looking at Dispatch Error for each of the 188 x Semi-Scheduled units to 16:15.
Noting the dust storm on Monday 26th May 2025 – and impact on electricity supply-demand
Belatedly noting the dust storm that past through South Australia on Monday 26th May 2025, which Andrew Miskelly of Weatherzone documented in a video on Bsky.
Evening price volatility in NSW on Sunday 1st June 2025
A short note with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:15 to mark some low-level price action in NSW on Sunday 1st June 2025
Guest Authored Posts
What’s happening to contingency FCAS prices? Is the current pattern of BESS bidding threatening demand response?
Paul Moore of Viotas look at recent supply-demand dynamics within the contingency FCAS markets and whether demand response can play a role.
Beyond the fence line: Why risk needs to be part of your renewable project narrative
This guest-authored post by Cameron Shield from Lockton follows on from his presentation at the CEC's Investor Forum earlier this year, where he urged the audience to "sell risk, don't buy insurance".
Detailed Analysis
Down for the count: eight separate transmission tower failure incidents in less than five years
A map of where the eight separate transmission tower incidents have occurred over the past five years.
So long solo solar, and hi hybrids?
A summary of the key challenges facing standalone solar and wind farms over the past several years, along with discussion and thoughts about whether new rules surrounding hybrids systems will address these.
What the last twenty years of the ESOO tells us about blackout predictions
After skimming through the last twenty editions of the ESOO over the past couple of days, Dan shares some thoughts about what has and hasn't changed over the years.
A tale of two mega-projects: Project Energy Connect and Snowy 2.0 timelines (Part 2)
In the second half of this two-part case study we look at a timeline of the Snowy 2.0 project, and discuss the history of mega-projects in the NEM.
A tale of two mega-projects: Project Energy Connect and Snowy 2.0 timelines (Part 1)
A timeline of evolving expectations for the cost, benefits, and delivery dates for Project Energy Connect - following news of recent issues surrounding the project.
A running view of the recent wind drought
A view of cumulative total wind production in Q2, highlighting a lack of spatial resource diversity, and the future challenges for gas and long-duration storage.
Who’s who in the ESOO
A compiled list of development projects delayed or leaving the market in between the ESOO2023 and its update released two weeks ago. Along with some analysis of longer term trends with the development pipeline.
Regulation FCAS Costs in 2023
Following a presentation with the CEC, Linton shared some insights into FCAS Regulation costs for wind and solar units over last calendar year.