Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
All Posts
East coast low brings challenging conditions for start of July in 2025
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Evening volatility on Friday 27th June 2025
Another run of energy spot price volatility occurred on Friday 27th June 2025.
How low did it go? NEM-wide wind production in recent days
We've already noted the ‘New all-time record for NEM-wide wind, on Monday 23rd June 2025’. But how low did wind production drop, on Thursday 26th June 2025?
Next steps in two big market changes (in terms of transparency)
Worth a short note today (Friday 27th June 2025) to note the publication of MN127877 – which references two market changes that will improve market transparency for all types of participants
Past 3 hours of continuous volatility on Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Considering that it was 16:45 (NEM time) when volatility started it’s notable that we’re into our 4th hour of volatility now on Thursday evening 26th June 2025.
Evening volatility ongoing (Thursday 26th June 2025), with NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ above 31,000MW
A further update on the volatility and high demand seen on Thursday evening 26th June 2025.
Run of evening volatility starts early, on Thursday 26th June 2025
Here’s a NEMwatch snapshot at 16:50 (NEM time) on Thursday 26th June 2025 with the run of volatility in the southern regions already well underway.
AER approves application for Basslink to be converted into a regulated transmission service
After rejecting an earlier proposal, the AER has today approved the conversion of Basslink into a regulated transmission service.
Cold weather drives electricity ‘Market Demand’ higher (and higher than AEMO’s earlier forecasts)
I thought it would be worth adding a couple snapshots from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at ‘Market Demand’ as at various dispatch intervals on Thursday 26th June 2025 looking backwards ~7...
Guest Authored Posts
Not all renewable projects are created equal: Why approval times vary dramatically across Australia
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
Detailed Analysis
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Four days in the NEM in four minutes
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
How did Cyclone Alfred impact electricity demand?
By day-end on the Friday the 7th demand levels were down more than 40% in the Gold Coast. Other areas were also impacted.
Three headline observations, about the use of proxies for System Frequency in Frequency Control mechanisms
Various authors have shared articles about frequency, frequency control and Regulation FCAS in recent times (including 6 from Linton). Here's three things that jumped out to me in these pieces of analysis.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...