A quick look at demand, wind and solar forecasts, along with the constraint invocation schedule in SA for this coming Wednesday, where the AEMO currently have an extended forecast LOR2 condition projected.
If we had been in the previous financial year, the old CPT of $1,573,700 would have been tripped.
Spot price volatility occurs in SA on 2 July 2025, yet not to the level that risks exceeding the cumulative price threshold.
Wild storms over night have impacted parts of the Ausgrid, Endeavour and Essential Energy distribution networks in NSW.
After an extended burst of high prices last night, and a short burst this morning, the cumulative price in SA has moved closer to CPT territory.
Cold winter conditions in NSW have pushed market demand in the region above 13GW this evening. Meanwhile, high prices have stuck around in SA.
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Another run of energy spot price volatility occurred on Friday 27th June 2025.
We've already noted the ‘New all-time record for NEM-wide wind, on Monday 23rd June 2025’. But how low did wind production drop, on Thursday 26th June 2025?
Considering that it was 16:45 (NEM time) when volatility started it’s notable that we’re into our 4th hour of volatility now on Thursday evening 26th June 2025.
A further update on the volatility and high demand seen on Thursday evening 26th June 2025.
Here’s a NEMwatch snapshot at 16:50 (NEM time) on Thursday 26th June 2025 with the run of volatility in the southern regions already well underway.
I thought it would be worth adding a couple snapshots from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at ‘Market Demand’ as at various dispatch intervals on Thursday 26th June 2025 looking backwards ~7...
Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 07:25 to record some morning volatility on Thursday 26th June 2025
It was now just over 5 years ago when Marcelle wrote ‘Not as simple as it appears – estimating curtailment of renewable generation’. This week's invocation of the 'N-DPWG_63_X5' constraint set provides a great...
An updated look at conditions in SA early next week, where a forecast LOR3 is now appearing for next Wednesday. We also look at the invocation schedule for constraint sets within the region.
System frequency shows improved resilience to sudden coal generation events since 2020.
A very short midday article on Wednesday 25th June 2025 noting this apparent trip of LYA2 unit from 443MW just prior to 11:31 (NEM time).
At 17:44 yesterday (Monday 23rd June 2025) the AEMO issued MN127743 noting an unplanned outage of Darlington Point - Wagga No.63 330 kV line (leading to the ‘N-DPWG_63_X5’ constraint set being invoked)