As December 2023 draws to a close, we take another look at return-to-service expectations for Callide C3 (a couple more weeks) and then Callide C4 (a few more months). References Nick Evans’ interesting articles.
Flooding from Cyclone Jasper has damaged part of the Barron Gorge Hydro Power Station in North Queensland, forcing its units offline until further assessment and repairs.
A short initial note about AEMO’s currently forecast LOR2 for NSW next Tuesday 19th December 2023.
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
A quick look at how restrictions in southern NSW meant that Victoria could not export to NSW through the afternoon … hence contributing to the tight supply-demand situation.
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in ‘Market Demand’.
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
The NEM-wide demand peaked (just!) above 30GW on Friday afternoon/evening 8th December 2023.
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.
A quick update today, following news yesterday from CS Energy about a 17-day delay to the expected return to service of Callide C3, following repairs to the collapsed cooling tower.
A bout of severe weather for many parts of south-eastern Australia brought challenging weather conditions which appear to have impacted variable renewable energy forecasts for the NEM. The case study delves into forecast differences on the 7th, 8th and 9th of September 2023.