AEMO ‘forecast LOR2’ for Monday morning 20th May 2024 currently growing tighter
An update (via Market Notice at 11:21) on the forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday morning 20th May 2024.
Market Operations
Some yo-yo action in NSW baseload electricity futures
An update on LinkedIn by an electricity retail broker (Choice Energy) prompts this update on NSW electricity futures price movements.
MT PASA DUID Availability confirms Eraring unit 2 offline till Tuesday 21st May 2024
A new data update from AEMO confirms the suspicion that (based on current expectations) Eraring unit 2 is now offline until Tuesday 21st May 2024.
AEMO updates forecast for supply-demand balance on Monday morning 20th May 2024 … now forecast LOR2
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
… but ER02 return to service hit a snag (Thu 16th May 2024) – now possibly out until Tue 21st May 2024
Yesterday afternoon (Thu 16th May) Eraring unit 2 commenced return to service. But it hit a snag that evening, came offline, and might be off for a few more days?
Eraring Unit 2 commences return-to-service startup, but ….
On Thursday afternoon 16th May 2024, Eraring unit 2 (after a 15-day outage due to a boiler tube leak) has commenced the return-to-service process.
‘Another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide, beginning Wednesday 8th May 2024
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about ‘another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 – the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
So how much did Eraring Power Station supply, of the NSW electricity consumption, over 5 days to 11th May 2024?
Following a reminder in a phone call today, I’ve updated the date range in a NEMreview trend previously used in February to look at percentage of Underlying Demand in NSW supplied for each half hour over the 5 day period Monday 6th May 2024 to Friday 10th May 2024 (which includes 3 volatile periods leading to Administered Pricing).
Bruce Mountain’s commentary about Eraring (and the Energy Transition) is worth a read
Today (Wed 15th May 2024) Bruce Mountain writes an opinion piece in the Australian about the recent run of Administered Pricing in NSW, and what it means for the looming closure of Eraring and the energy transition.
Administered Pricing ends in NSW from 04:05 Wednesday 15th May 2024
as expected, Administered Pricing has ended in NSW at 04:00 on Wednesday 15th May 2024
Will the rolling Cumulative Price for NSW fall back below the CPT on Tuesday evening 14th May 2024
A short (early afternoon) look at the progression of Cumulative Price in NSW, almost 7 days after the evening volatility on Tuesday 7th May 2024 started the climb to the Cumulative Price Threshold.
Low wind harvest in South Australia
Also on social media was a comment by Jess Hunt about low wind conditions in South Australia currently … which has prompted these thoughts.
Spot price volatility in May 2024 in NSW flows through to ‘baseload’ futures prices
Following a conversation with one journalist yesterday, and a tweet from another journalist, here’s an updated trend of NSW ‘baseload’ futures contract prices for 12 x quarters.
Delving deeper, into gas-fired peaker performance in NSW on Tue 7th May and Wed 8th May
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW gas-fired generator bidding.
Delving deeper, into battery (discharge) performance in NSW on Tue 7th May and Wed 8th May
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW large-scale battery generator bidding.
Delving deeper, into Wind Farm performance in NSW on Tue 7th May and Wed 8th May
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW wind farm generator bidding.
Delving deeper, into coal generator performance in NSW on Tue 7th May and Wed 8th May
Looking back 4 days (including Wed 8th May 2024) at NSW coal-fired generator bidding.
A quick look at the ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation, with respect to Wednesday 8th May 2024
The ‘N::N_CTYS_2’ constraint equation (invoked due to a network outage on the Collector to Yass (3L) line) was one of the constraint equations material in volatile price outcomes in NSW on Tue 7th May 2024 and Wed 8th May 2024.
Eraring unit 3 coming back online (Thursday evening 9th May 2024), following boiler tube leak
It’s Thursday evening 9th may 2024 and (almost exactly a week since it came offline) Eraring Unit 3 has commenced return-to-service after repairing a boiler tube leak.
Thursday 9th May 2024 – Day #1 under Administered Pricing in NSW
A short record of Thursday evening 9th May 2024, with NSW under Administered Pricing.