A 2nd short article falling out of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q4. This one looks at Sunday 12th November 2023 and shows the lowest point in 2023 for NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target (and the largest ramp in Q4).
A short article looking at Friday 8th December 2023 looking at NEM-wide Aggregate Scheduled Target on the day.
The Russ Christ Effect can be described as cloud impacts on rooftop PV arriving before any associated cooling conditions. We consider the extent to which a sudden and unforecast jump in demand was driven by this phenomenon.
A short note recording the ‘trip to house load’ (TTHL) test at Stanwell unit 1 on Wednesday 6th March 2024 … using the same parts of the plant subject to concerns about fatigue damage.
That same reader has helped point out that temporary towers brought the Moorabool Sydenham No2 500 kV line back into service on Wed 6th March 2024 (following No1 line RTS on Sun 25th Feb 2024).
A quick look back at Thu 29th Feb 2024 – a day where afternoon (congestion-based) curtailment of Large Solar in NSW exacerbated the tight supply-demand balance and spot price volatility.
A quick look back at Tuesday 28th November 2023, a day of lowest Large Solar yield through 2023 Q4.
Putting the high demand seen in NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024 in historical context.
Last article (on the day) about Thu 29th Feb 2024. Prompted by an AFR article just over 24 hours ago, how large was the contribution of Eraring Power Station to the NSW electricity region today?
Pulling together an estimate for ‘Underlying Demand’ in NSW for Thursday 29th February 2024, it was very big – and occurred earlier than the peak in ‘Market Demand’, and is measured in different ways by different people.
At 16:35 on Thu 29th Feb 2024 the NSW demand peaked at its highest point in summer 2023-24.
Took a first look at the 15:10 price spike to the $16,600/MWh Market Price Cap in NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024.
We’ve already witnessed four price spikes this afternoon as demand in NSW is approaching its expected peak. P5 forecasts are currently projects prices to remain at very elevated levels for the time being.
A mid-afternoon update about NSW on Thu 29th Feb 2024.
It’s early afternoon so here’s a quick look at forecasts for NSW on Thursday evening 29th Feb 2024.
It’s Thursday 29th Feb 2024 and with ‘next day public’ bid data we take a look back at the (very similarly profiled) short notice outages at Tarong unit 1 and unit 2 yesterday (Wed 28th Feb 2024).
AEMO current forecasts (at early afternoon Wed 28th Feb) still show a tight supply-demand balance in NSW for Thu 29th Feb afternoon/evening, but not as severe.
Following the earlier trips … TARONG#1 has come online, closely followed by TARONG#2.
TARONG#1 has come offline from close to minimum load this morning, closely followed by TARONG#2 (also from close to minimum load) – Wednesday 28th February 2024
AEMO updated forecasts for LOR2 in NSW (and now QLD) for Thursday 29th Feb 2024 are now more severe than the earlier forecasts.