Straight out of the pages of the FinReview and into spot price outcomes in the NEM on Sunday 11th July 2021!
Wind Correlation Penalty
David Osmond’s question on Twitter prompted me to have a look at large wind production overnight.
Today AGL Energy announces a big impairment … with a big chunk related to long-term wind offtake agreements which AGL entered into between 2006 and 2012.
Patricia Boyce’ challenging question coincided with the low point of cyclic wind output across the NEM this afternoon, and prompted some thinking…
An article published by AEMC on the ‘value of dispatchability’ provided the spur to return to our intention of freely sharing insights gleaned from the Generator Statistical Digest 2019. Today’s article highlighting the value of dispatchability.
A full page article in the FinReview today quotes a number of people (including our work in the Generator Report Card) speaking about heightened risk in the NEM. Coincident with this, we see another instance of negative prices in South Australia (which has become increasingly common) but also something I can’t remember seeing before – an average negative price across the entire day so far!
In terms of diversity of intermittent supplies, we need to understand that we’re not just comparing data series on a scale that runs from “highly correlated” to “random”…
Following from (what we have seen as) an increase in diversity of concerns (and claims) about different aspects of generator performance, we’re leveraging our extensive data set and capabilities to have a deeper look, leading to the publication of a Generator Report Card with data to 31st December 2018. We’d welcome input from those who wish to pre-order their copies now at an initial low rate.
A brief follow on from yesterday’s post, with the advantage of being able to review yesterday’s bids (and rebids) today.
The past week, with wind farm output blowing gangbusters in South Australia (coupled with low demand and System Strength requirements) we seen the “Wind Correlation Penalty” start to bite, with some reactions also beginning to show.
This morning over on Twitter, I was pulled into a discussion that had started with respect to volume of wind energy curtailed in South Australia: The genesis of this twitter conversation was the AEMO’s “Quarterly Energy Dynamics – Q1…
It was inevitable that Semi-Scheduled plant would start to experience times when they are dispatched down. It’s a big prompt to take next steps up the learning curve.
An article that sums up some decidedly un-quick calculations we’ve performed – looking over an 8 week period to 13th September to estimate how much wind power has been curtailed by the AEMO.
Some thoughts about the possible uplift to Infigen Energy revenues, stemming from higher forward contract prices in the South Australian region of the NEM