The bottom falls out of SA ‘Market Demand’ unexpectedly, on Tuesday 18th November 2025
A brief record of some challenges encountered in forecasting midday Market Demand for South Australia on Tuesday 18th November 2025.
Variable Renewable Energy (VRE)
Weakness in frequency stability on Thursday afternoon 16th October 2025
The worst periods of frequency stability on Thursday 16th October 2025 were *not* with the simultaneous trip of YWPS3 and YWPS4, but rather later and the day - and look similar to patterns seen...
Scarce use of aggregate dispatch conformance to-date
No Mixed aggregate dispatch groups have been registered.
Trended physical/technical availability of Semi-Scheduled units – aggregated
A zoomed-out view of six metrics supports understanding of physical/technical semi-scheduled generator availability.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Was Monday evening’s new record wind production well forecast in advance?
Taking a closer look at the new 'highest ever' point for NEM-wide Wind Production on Monday 26th May 2025, and how well this was forecast in advance.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Generator exposure to regulation costs under FPP
In his third article, Jack Fox uses the Non Financial Operation (NFO) data to take a look at some VRE units, and how they would have performed under FPP.
Today’s presentation to CEC’s Market & Grid Directorate
We thank the Clean Energy Council for the opportunity to share insights into revenue trends, cost trends, and analysis of upcoming changes for units operating in the NEM.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
A look at curtailment through the GSD2024
After reviewing the latest version of our Generator Statistical Digest (GSD), David Leitch shares his top insights about VRE curtailment across the NEM in 2024.
Further on the N_NEWENSF1+2_100-INV constraint around the 14:00 dispatch interval on Wednesday 15th January 2025 … Part 8
We understand how the solar farm units received targets of 0 MW, when the constraint appears to simply limit the inverter count to 100.
AEMO’s 2024 Intermittent Generator Forum provides renewed awareness for wind and solar generators
Information spanned a wide range of topics related to intermittent generator forecasting, and included a guest presentation by the AER.
Trended NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024
A short article in conjunction with GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, trending NEM-wide % VRE over 12 days in June 2024.
Highest-ever wind yield … *and* worst wind yield since June 2017!
… it does not seem logical that both can be true, but (from our look at the numbers) it does appear to be!