Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Self-Forecasting
Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
AER published ‘Semi-Scheduled Generator Compliance Bulletin’ on Tuesday 4th February 2025
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
AER sends clear message on self-forecasting behaviours
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.
Delivering oscillations, whilst seeking to minimise oscillations? A Case Study (Part 1?) of Darlington Point Solar Farm on Thursday 29th August 2024
A case study, drawing heavily on various widgets in ez2view, looking at some large (and unexpected) oscillations in output at Darlington Point Solar Farm through a ~2 hour period on Thursday 29th August 2024.
A year-by-year look a changing times for “Gate Closure #3”
Gate Closure #3 represents the cut-off time for solar and wind availability forecasts to be used in dispatch. Since 2019 the timings are reducing and narrowing.
How many Semi-Scheduled units were submitting Self-Forecasts through 2023 (and how many of these were actually used in dispatch)?
Our GSD2023 was released just over 4 weeks ago. This is the second sequential article utilising the GSD2023 Data Extract to take a look across all the Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Solar). In...
Worth a read – ESIG Report ‘Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems’
This morning I was fortunate to listen into an ESIG Webinar with respect to their report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems'
What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability
It is indispensable to understand how the semi-scheduled unit availability gets produced to optimally manage the critical inputs and comprehend dispatch outcomes. This article explains the key inputs and processes, focusing on the dispatch...
An imminent improvement to the bidding and dispatch process for Semi-Scheduled units
AEMO is re-enabling the ‘MaxAvail’ figure in bids for Semi-Scheduled units. It will act as a limit on capacity available, feeding into the NEMDE dispatch process for the unit. We look at how Semi-Scheduled...
AEMO’s MMS 5.2, ez2view v9.7, Semi-Scheduled MaxAvail in the Bid, and a self-forecasting example
Today (Tue 23rd May) is the go-live date for AEMO's EMMS v5.2 - which will contain new data for some market enhancements. Here's a quick look at where this first change will appear in...
Delving deeper into dispatch availability self-forecasting performance
We delve deeper into dispatch availability self-forecasts and the assessment process to further enhance our understanding of this important aspect, testing sensitivity to gate closure times and requirements on minimum intervals.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 3 … (+861MW AggROT – source of AvailGen)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).
Some revelations in GenInsights Q4 2022 about Self-Forecasting
This first excerpt from GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q4 2022 looks specifically at the trended level of adoption of self-forecasting for Semi-Scheduled Solar Farms in the NEM. This article on Monday 26th February 2023...
Observation 15/22 from GenInsights21 – what is the purpose of Self-Forecasting?
Today, more than 14 months after the publication of GenInsights21 we're sharing Key Observation 15 of 22, relating to self-forecasting for Semi-Scheduled units.
Twelve hours of Mainland NEM System Frequency on Friday 3rd February 2023
Another article today presenting 12 hours of history of System Frequency (to ~14:00 on Friday 3rd February 2023) with a few questions added. Comments welcome!
Enhancement of ASEFS and AWEFS forecasts provided by AEMO – from Wednesday 23th November 2022
A short article, to record the upgrade of the ASEFS and AWEFS forecasts for Semi-Scheduled (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) units.
“Rise of the Machines” – the increasing role of auto-bidding and self-forecasting in the modern-day NEM
On Thursday 17th March, Jonathon Dyson presented at the CEC Wind Industry Forum in Melbourne about the increasing role of auto-bidding and self-forecasting in the modern-day NEM. In this article, he shares some of...
What does the future hold for Wind and Solar in the NEM – seen via GenInsights21?
Following from the release of GenInsights21, in this article we look at some of what that analytical publication can help us understand, in terms of how the changing market is impacting on the role...
Exploring several categories of Stakeholder in ‘Generator Insights 2021’
In our development of GenInsights21, we're exploring ways to also include some analysis of different types of stakeholders in the generation process. In this article we outline a couple (and seek your input).