With the 2023 ESOO report, different views about which USE figure should the AEMO have led with?
Here's my view on whether Figure 2 should have preceded Figure 1 (with respect to projections of unserved energy ... USE) in the 2023 ESOO.
market modelling
The 2023 ESOO report clarifies why the transmission model only includes ‘System Normal’ – and why it’s a simplification
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is has highlighted the set of constraints modelled is only 'System Normal'.
The 2023 ESOO modelling provides a more accurate real world depiction of Wind Farm limitations at high temperatures
One observation about the 2023 ESOO is that AEMO is now modelling (more accurately) the high temperature degradation on wind farm performance.
AEMO releases 2023 ESOO on Thursday 31st August 2023 (Australia’s NEM is perched on the edge)
AEMO notes that 'Australia's NEM is perched on the edge' in the 2023 ESOO, released today (Thu 31st Aug 2023)
The VEPC paper ‘No longer lost in transmission’, and the AEMO response
An article today referencing the VEPC paper 'No longer lost in transmission' (about extended VNI-West, and the authors proposed alternative 'Plan B') and the AEMO's initial response.
How dispatch works … it’s much more than just a bid stack
New guest author, Ryan Esplin progressively builds a more precise model of the NEMDE dispatch process to illustrate why the stylised 'Merit Order' bid stack model is increasingly not enough to explain dispatch and...
Analysis Paralysis – where has our engineering gone?
Kate Summers gave this speech about the 'paralysis by analysis' currently occurring in the energy industry at Melbourne's All-Energy Australia Conference on Wednesday 26th of October.
EY-ROAM modelling for Queensland Energy Plan released
It's under 2 weeks since the Queensland Government released its much-awaited Energy Policy. Some reports into the modelling behind this (from EY-ROAM) has been released.
‘What next for market modelling?’ … Key Observation #6 from GenInsights21
On 16th October 2025, we posted ‘Some suggestions for the Nelson Review panel to consider (with respect to Forecasting) following review of the Draft Report’, and in that mentioned this Key Observation #6 from...
Forecasting is a Mug’s Game
The three main flaws that put boundaries on the usefulness of all forecasting/modelling
A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.
A few thoughts on the RET Review process
Some assorted thoughts about the RET, and the RET Review process currently underway