Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
games self-forecasters can play
A collection of articles tagged with ‘games self-forecasters can* play’.
… noting that not all choose to do so!
Readers might also like to review any A collation of articles (perhaps separately) categorised with ‘Games that Self-Forecasters can Play’.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Games that self-forecasters can* play (Part 1 – An Overview)
I've promised to write this article for some time, but a few recent events (and looming start of FPP) have caused me to publish this now.
AER published ‘Semi-Scheduled Generator Compliance Bulletin’ on Tuesday 4th February 2025
Two weeks after the AER published its updated Compliance Bulletin (and Compliance Checklist) for Semi-Scheduled units, we've finally found time to note about it.
New lowest-ever* point for NSW ‘Market Demand’ on Sunday 16th Feb 2025 was lower than AEMO’s earlier forecasts
Second article pertaining to the remarkably low level of 'Market Demand' in NSW on Sunday 16th February 2025.
AER sends clear message on self-forecasting behaviours
Semi-scheduled generators shouldn't treat self-forecasts as commercial parameters. The regulator holds significant concerns with the biasing of self-forecasts for commercial benefit.