Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Various authors have shared articles about frequency, frequency control and Regulation FCAS in recent times (including 6 from Linton). Here's three things that jumped out to me in these pieces of analysis.
The faster-moving nature of the FM, with the introduction of FPP, removes predictability in the indicator for frequency performance.