One of our ez2view alerts (i.e. the one for ‘coal unit switches off’) configured in the ‘Notifications’ widget triggered at 19:31 (NEM time) on Wednesday evening 22nd January 2025 to show GSTONE2 coming offline.
Given the very tight supply-demand balance in the QLD region on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 (both very low IRPM and also ‘Actual LOR2’) it’s worth a quick look at this snapshot of NEM Mainland Frequency over the past 2 hours (to 18:53 NEM time), as measured in our Brisbane office
So only seconds after(?) we’ve posted this third article, the AEMO publishes MN123594 at 18:43:09 noting ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD on Wed 22nd Jan 2025.
Third article this evening (Wed 22nd Jan 2025) as the supply-demand balance in QLD tightens first with the sun setting (so disappearance of Solar PV injections, whilst Underlying Demand remains high).
Following from QLD’s new all-time-maximum level of ‘Market Demand’ we take a quick look at actual levels, compared to AEMO’s earlier (P30 predispatch) forecasts.
A first quick article (with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:55) noting the new all-time-maximum level of ‘Market Demand’ in QLD on Wednesday afternoon/evening 22nd January 2025.
An ez2view snapshot on Wednesday afternoon 22nd January 2025 with an illustration of the ‘Q-BCCP_812’ constraint set.
Worth recording a snapshot from NEMwatch at 13:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 with the NSW price up at $14,028.17/MWh.
For the second day in a row, on Wed 22nd Jan 2025 AEMO has notified about an error in the predispatch demand forecast process.
A short article as a record of ramping constraints bound with reference to network outages in South Australia (and Queensland) on Wednesday morning 22nd January 2025.
We’d seen Bayswater unit 2 come offline this morning, and wondered if we’d not seen the unit bouncing ON-OFF a few times recently.
AEMO noted (in MN123507) that ‘The Bundey to Buronga 330kV (6F) line will be energised at 0700 hrs 21st January 2025.’
AEMO STPASA forecasts for QLD ‘Market Demand’ on Thursday 24th January 2025 is that it might be a new all-time record. Earlier STPASA forecasts suggested it would be above the (prior) all-time record from a year ago.
On Wednesday 15th January 2025 the AEMC decided to make a temporary rule change (which will come into effect from 23 January 2025) relating to mothballed Snuggery and Port Lincoln power stations in South Australia.
Last article for the day is Part 6 exploring the volatility at 14:00 on Wednesday 15th January 2025 … flagging some other things not noted before.
In Part 5 in this evolving series, we find a significant drop in mainland frequency at ~14:00 on Wednesday 15th January 2025 – coincident with the weather disruption and price volatility.
Taking a look at the ‘N_NEWENSF1+2_100-INV’ constraint equation, one other factor in the volatility in NSW on Wednesday afternoon 15th January 2025.
Second sequential part of a broader review of some earlier-than-expected volatility in NSW on Wednesday afternoon 15th January 2025.
Not long after speaking with a client about forecast evening volatility in NSW for Wednesday 15th January 2025, we see price spikes beginning at 14:00 in the afternoon. So we take a first look….
Yesterday, our team produced ‘not-for-dissemination early draft’ of the GSD2024. We take a look through this (and use ez2view) to explore reports of a trial of ‘two-shifting’ (and other enhancements to flexibility) for the Mt Piper coal-fired units in recent months.