Four units at Gladstone still running … was it (is it) partly a game of bluff?
A fourth update in what’s visible in the market data about Industrial Action at Gladstone Power Station
A fourth update in what’s visible in the market data about Industrial Action at Gladstone Power Station
Friday 31st January 2025 (appeared to) experienced a very large drop in demand in NSW in a single dispatch interval – but we’re now suspecting some form of data/operational glitch. However we wonder, if there was ~1,000MW more energy injected into the grid than required over a sustained period, what stopped the frequency flying through the roof?
A short record of spot price volatility in NSW on Tuesday afternoon 4th February 2025.
With all 6 x Gladstone units expected to be offline by the end of the day due to Industrial Action, very timely that AEMO MN124047 notifies the market that ‘The system normal equations have been revised to remove Gladstone >=1 requirement’
After a pretty remarkable evening (on Monday 3rd February 2025) here’s some statistics in terms of how today’s peak demand levels rate in comparison with the most recent 6,244 days (i.e. back to 1st January 2008).
A quick mid-afternoon article with a snapshot from NEMwatch at 14:55 (NEM time) to highlight the current status.
Taking a second look at the (apparent) large drop in NSW ‘Market Demand’ on Friday afternoon 31st January 2025. Was it a data glitch instead?
An update (at 09:00 NEM time) on AEMO’s more recent forecasts for peak demand levels for this evening Monday 3rd February 2025.
Yesterday we posted ‘All 6 coal units at Gladstone coincidentally out on unplanned outage this coming week?’. Two readers noted in comments about Industrial Action for the station this week, so we take a closer look …. (incl the AEMO forecast LOR conditions for QLD + VIC and SA this week)
Worth also adding in a short note with this snapshot from ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at the 18:00 on Sunday 2nd February 2025 with all 6 units at Gladstone slated to be offline simultaneously for unplanned outage for a few days this week.
Worth a short note with this NEMwatch snapshot highlighting that the Victorian ‘Market Demand’ has reached 9,433MW this afternoon at the 17:35 dispatch interval already on Sunday 2nd February 2025
Here’s an updated view of AEMO’s forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM (and Victoria) for Mon 3rd Feb and Tue 4th Feb 2025 – from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 12:55 dispatch (NEM time) on Sun 2nd Feb 2025.
With respect to forecasts for peak Victorian ‘Market Demand’ in summer 2024-25 (and particularly with expectations of Monday 3rd and Tuesday 4th February) we fielded a few questions about how extreme that might be. So we thought we’d provide this article as some context.
A quick note, recording some late afternoon volatility in South Australia.
There’s essentially three measures of demand that are commonly talked about, and they are not really interchangeable.
With respect to forecasts for peak NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ in summer 2024-25 (and particularly following Friday’s article) we fielded a few questions about how extreme that might be. So we thought we’d provide this article as some context.
Coincident with the walk home this afternoon/evening, the ‘Notifications’ widget in one of our display copies of ez2view alerted us to a large drop of ‘Market Demand’ in the NSW region … at a 937MW drop in the 5 minutes to 17:15 NEM time, so I have taken an initial look
Following our earlier article from ~24 hours earlier, at look at ez2view shows that it’s been ‘hotting up’ for demand forecasts for Monday 3rd February 2025.
Also on Thursday 30th January 2024 the AER released its Wholesale Markets Quarterly for 2024 Q4 (within hours of the AEMO’s release of the QED for 2024 Q4).
On Thursday 30th January 2025, the AEMO published its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for 2024 Q4. Here’s some of the coverage of that which we have seen ….