Prompted by several different conversations offline in early 2021, I’ve taken a quick look at what have been traded volumes (on ASX) of the traditional ‘PEAK’ hedge contract for the NSW, QLD, VIC and SA regions. What does this tell us about a market view of the energy transition?
Articles by Paul McArdle
A report released this week by Green Energy Markets and the IEEFA exploring the prospect of accelerated coal closures, has itself caused some ripples…
Monday 22nd February 2021 saw QLD Scheduled Demand rise higher than it has on any other day so far this summer … 576MW below the all-time maximum.
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
Watching what’s unfolded in Texas over the past 24 hours has been rather disconcerting … but also prompted questions about the broader energy transition. Here are some thoughts.
Today (Sunday 14th February 2021) ‘Scheduled Demand’ dropped down again in South Australia – almost setting a new record for ‘lowest point since the start of the NEM (excl System Black)’
In the middle of the day today (Fri 12th Feb) VIC Premier Dan Andrews announced a snap lockdown – here’s a quick look at how this was (quickly) added into the ST PASA Operational Demand forecast.
Following last week’s ASX & Media Release, this week’s half-year results presented by AGL Energy has more questions being asked. Here are some …
As promised in the Intermittent Generation Forum late in 2020, the AEMO has released an important Handbook for operators of Semi-Scheduled (wind and solar) assets.
In this (lengthy) article today, Paul McArdle uses the newly released GSD2020 to take a look at the units that were most frequently impacted by constraints during calendar 2020 – with a view to how this has changed from 2011 to 2020.
Today AGL Energy announces a big impairment … with a big chunk related to long-term wind offtake agreements which AGL entered into between 2006 and 2012.
From Monday 1st Feb 2021 the (720-page) Generator Statistical Digest 2020 is more broadly available – here’s some of what’s in it, and how you can access. Those dozens of clients who had submitted earlier pre-orders were provided early access on Friday 29th Jan 2021.
A chart we threw together quickly at Beer O’Clock today (from the imminent release of the GSD2020) was worth sharing more broadly on WattClarity today…
Quite a synergistic coincidence today that, at the same time as we are finalizing the release of the GSD2020, we see the AEMO publishes its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for Q4 2020.
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
Short article today observing higher Scheduled Demand in VIC – which appears to be in large part due to state-wide suppression of solar PV production with heavy cloud and rainfall.
Forecasts was that it would be hot across Victoria, and demand would be high, through Monday 25th January 2021. But the cool change arrived early.
Second article today, focusing on what happened late in the afternoon and into the evening in South Australia.
It was forecast it would be a hot day in the southern part of the NEM and it did not disappoint. The hot weather was one of the factors that contributed to price spikes … in Regulation FCAS, and then in QLD and later in South Australia.
Following several different warnings of high temperatures forecast for the lead-in to Tuesday 26th January 2021 (whatever you want to call that day) I’ve taken a quick look at what it’s currently forecast to mean for the NEM…