Given the tight supply-demand balance forecast for NSW and QLD this week, it’s worth revisiting the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view at 15:35 on Sunday 24th November 2024 to show what the current status is of generator outage plans
AEMO’s MN120879 rates special mention, given the size of largest load shedding forecast for NSW on Wednesday afternoon/evening is above 1,000MW.
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why…
Worth noting the proposed ‘Firm Energy Reliability Mechanism’ from the South Australian Government – with live online information session Monday 25th November 2024.
Whilst publishing articles here today about Rule Change Proposals, it’s worth me also flagging the ECA proposal for ‘Access to real time data for consumers’.
Today the AEMC weekly email notes that:
‘We will use the standard rules consultation process to assess Delta Electricity’s proposal to allow cash as credit support. We received a valid objection to the proposed use of the expedited process, meaning the standard approach will be used instead.’ Also today was the closure date for submissions (as noted in the Consultation Paper).
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
We already noted this a few times recently, but we thought it would be worth separating out as its own article under the ‘Energy Literacy’ category, as it’s likely we’ll be referring back to it increasingly in future.
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
Given forecasts for early next week in NSW, it’s some welcome news to see that the BW04 unit has commenced its return to service process.
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
A short note to flag the apparent trip of Callide C3 just prior to 06:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024.
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
A short record of some evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday evening 18th November 2024 … with the ‘N-MNYS_5_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set a familiar factor.
It’s roughly 6 months since the decision was made to extend the life of Eraring Power Station. I’ve had a question for a while, but have only had time to look now – what does that mean, in terms of planned outages to 2027?