Worth a short note with this NEMwatch snapshot highlighting that the Victorian ‘Market Demand’ has reached 9,433MW this afternoon at the 17:35 dispatch interval already on Sunday 2nd February 2025
Here’s an updated view of AEMO’s forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ across the NEM (and Victoria) for Mon 3rd Feb and Tue 4th Feb 2025 – from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 12:55 dispatch (NEM time) on Sun 2nd Feb 2025.
With respect to forecasts for peak Victorian ‘Market Demand’ in summer 2024-25 (and particularly with expectations of Monday 3rd and Tuesday 4th February) we fielded a few questions about how extreme that might be. So we thought we’d provide this article as some context.
A quick note, recording some late afternoon volatility in South Australia.
There’s essentially three measures of demand that are commonly talked about, and they are not really interchangeable.
With respect to forecasts for peak NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ in summer 2024-25 (and particularly following Friday’s article) we fielded a few questions about how extreme that might be. So we thought we’d provide this article as some context.
Coincident with the walk home this afternoon/evening, the ‘Notifications’ widget in one of our display copies of ez2view alerted us to a large drop of ‘Market Demand’ in the NSW region … at a 937MW drop in the 5 minutes to 17:15 NEM time, so I have taken an initial look
Following our earlier article from ~24 hours earlier, at look at ez2view shows that it’s been ‘hotting up’ for demand forecasts for Monday 3rd February 2025.
Also on Thursday 30th January 2024 the AER released its Wholesale Markets Quarterly for 2024 Q4 (within hours of the AEMO’s release of the QED for 2024 Q4).
On Thursday 30th January 2025, the AEMO published its Quarterly Energy Dynamics for 2024 Q4. Here’s some of the coverage of that which we have seen ….
A quick look (at Thursday morning 30th Jan 2025) out the coming week in AEMO’s ST PASA forecasts.
We’re reviewing a draft of the GSD2024 (release coming soon), and a 9-month outage at Cohuna Solar Farm in 2024 jumped out at us and prompted questions …
An updated view (at 13:55) of the NSW region on a hot summer’s afternoon on Tue 28th Jan 2025.
A short article looking ahead to the afternoon/evening for NSW on Tuesday 28th January 2025.
We’ve checked with NEMwatch in this snapshot for the 18:35 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Friday 24th January 2025 and we see that the ‘Market Demand’ reached 10,897MW (target for the 17:45 dispatch interval).
Contemplating the end of the day, and looming sunset, a quick look at NEMwatch at 16:45 NEM time to see the ‘Market Demand’ at 10,543MW and climbing.
Whilst we’re waiting to see where ‘Market Demand’ lands for Friday 24th January 2025 (we might report that later), I was curious in terms of supply-side performance of units over the past 4 days in Queensland – including the extreme demand period of Wednesday 22nd January 2025…
An updated view (via ‘Forecast Convergence’ in ez2view) for forecast demand for QLD on Friday afternoon/evening 24th January 2025 … and reintroduction for ‘forecast LOR2’.
Here’s a 3-day trend chart from ez2view to look at the trended half-hourly* fuel mix in the Queensland region including Wednesday 22nd January 2025.
Worth a short note to highlight that the AEMO published MN123598 at 19:44 to flag cancellation of ‘Actual LOR2’ in QLD.