Worth noting MN122275 published at 15:51 on Thursday 19th December 2024 being what I believe might be the second-ever forecast for the tighter MSL2- level alert for the coming Sunday 22nd December 2024.
A short note to highlight that the alerting in ez2view has flagged that the (deferred) network outage (in the ‘N-X_AVMA_KCTX’ constraint set) commenced Wednesday morning 18th December 2024.
We’ve posted ‘A quick initial review of bids, for Monday 16th December 2024’ early in the morning of the following day. In this follow-on article, we focus specifically on Wind Farms in Victoria – using ‘Bids & offers’ widget in ez2view to peel one more layer of the onion (and revealing more questions in the process).
A short article with this NEMwatch snapshot at 15:20 (NEM time) to highlight that spot prices in NSW and QLD have started to climb, but demand forecast for NSW is moderating.
Electricity Demand in Victoria on Monday 16th December 2024 reached quite high levels … but they were not ‘all time maximum’ (i.e if looking at ‘Market Demand’ or ‘Grid Demand’).
Monday 16th December 2024 was an interesting day in the NEM for a number of reasons. So we’ll use the ‘Bids & Offers’ widget in ez2view to do this quick initial review and then, depending what we see, determine whether we want to invest further time to delve deeper…
A short after-the-fact note to confirm NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ was (as predicted) highest since 31st January 2020 (almost 4 years ago) … in a case where AEMO Operational Forecasting team nailed the demand in forecasts more than 3 days earlier. Take a bow!
Here’s a single snapshot from ez2view at the 16:15 dispatch interval to illustrate widespread constraint limitations in western NSW and western VIC.
In this short article we include a single snapshot of ez2view at the 15:45 dispatch interval with three copies of the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget to show actual levels of ‘Market Demand’ are running above forecasts.
It might be useful for readers to reflect on the following snapshot from NEMwatch at the 14:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) to see Underlying Demand above 38,000MW.
Last Friday afternoon 13th December 2024 we wrote that ‘NEM-wide demand on Monday 16th December forecast to be highest in almost 4 years’. So I thought this morning we’d use a couple widgets in ez2view to take a look forward to the forecasts for Monday 16th December 2024 late afternoon and evening to see what’s changed …
As at 13:45 on Friday 13th December, the peak demand (measured as ‘Market Demand’ ) forecast for Monday is 33,718MW in the half-hour ending 18:00 (NEM time). In the last 17 years there have been only 9 months seeing higher level of demand.
At 13:06 NEM time the AEMO published MN121831 and 121833 noting the cancellation of the forecast LOR3 that was in place for both Monday 16th December 2024 and Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Earlier this morning, we posted about deeper LOR3 forecast for Mon 16th and Tue 17th Dec 2024 … and promised to take a look at ‘what’s changed?’. That’s what we do here.
We noted as it happened (e.g. hard to ignore a steady run of SMS alerts) , but only belatedly publish this record of evening volatility on Thursday evening 12th December 2024.
We’ll explore ‘what’s changed?’ more in subsequent articles – but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme …
Topical, given forecast load shedding for NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December, is the latest high temperature alerts for large parts of the NEM on 14th, 15th and 16th December 2024.
We also now have a forecast for LOR3 in NSW for Tuesday 17th December 2024.
Third article already this morning looking ahead to what’s forecast for Monday 16th December 2024 … longer duration (and deeper) LOR3 (load shedding) in NSW + also LOR2 in Victoria.
With AEMO forecasting LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW for periods of time on Monday 16th December 2024, in this WattClarity article we take a first look. More to come *as time permits* (and as situations change, etc…).