There have already been quite a number of articles written today about the forecast tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 18th December 2025.
Well, the evening is upon us now, and the volatility in NSW has commenced – as we see in this NEMwatch snapshot at 18:20 (NEM time):
With respect to the annotations:
1) There was an earlier spike to the same price (~$14,000/MWh, so part-way to the Market Price Cap), but the pricing has not been consistent (yet?)
2) We see the NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ up at 32,218MW … so slightly higher than earlier forecasts.
3) Part of the reason for the see-saw prices is seen is the oscillating levels of ‘Market Demand’ – both for the NSW region (LHS axis) and the NEMwide (RHS axis)
4) We can see a series of interesting market notices, following on from Dan’s note about RERT negotiations;
5) In the trended fuel mix for NSW, we get a sense of the changing relative shares as solar approaches sunset.
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