A hot afternoon in NSW on Wednesday 22nd October 2025 (but the price did not pop … at least to 14:15)

A few of us in the Brisbane office (of us at Global-Roam Pty Ltd)  found ourselves intermittently distracted today, watching the worm line of Sydney temperatures continue to climb through the day, with all the follow-on machinations in terms of the market.

We thought it would be useful to publish this short (perhaps somewhat cryptic) note for posterity.

An overview, via NEMwatch

Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 13:50 (NEM time) on Wednesday 22nd October 2025 to provide an overview:

In this image, we can see:

1)  VIC1-NSW1 running hard south, delivering counter-priced flow as a result

2)  With a block of hydro generation in NSW having stepped up about 30 minutes earlier, and also a sliver of gas … both related, and impacting on VIC1-NSW1 flow south.

More detail, via ez2view

Referencing this snapshot from ez2view at 14:00 (NEM time), we see the ‘N>>8_16_39’ constraint equation bound, and increasingly ‘constraining down’ Semi-Scheduled VRE production due to depressed Local Price for each unit:

This constraint equation was a member of the ‘N-DTMN_8_15M’ constraint set, which was invoked today to represent the outage on the Dapto-Marulan (8) 330kV Line.

1)  The outage ran until the 14:15 (NEM time) dispatch interval.

2)  So completed before the evening peak in demand.

That’s all for now…