AEMO updated MT PASA guidance, on 3rd October 2025

Worth copying in here AEMO’s Market Notice 129413 published late Friday afternoon 3rd October 2025 pertaining to the coming two-year period, in part because

• it notes the easing of concerns for summer 2026-27 in South Australia due to the extension of operations at Torrens B station:
• but concerns for August 2027to October 2027 in NSW remain:
  • noting that a formal decision about further prolonging the operations of Eraring has not been made
  • but also the comments about Waratah BESS and the SIPS

Here it is:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 03/10/2025 17:06:40

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Notice ID : 129413
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 03/10/2025
External Reference : RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 3 October 2025

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Reason :

The MTPASA results published on 3 October 2025 identify annual unserved energy exceeding the Reliability Standard between:
October 2026 – October 2027 in New South Wales.

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules for the following region and period:
August 2027 – October 2027 in New South Wales
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

Low Reserve Conditions previously identified in:
December 2026 – March 2027 in South Australia
are no longer forecast, as unserved energy is no longer forecast above the Reliability Standard in these regions and periods.

MTPASA considers transmission augmentations only once they near commissioning and applies planned outages and weekly energy limits. As a result, MTPASA may identify greater levels of reliability risk than identified in the Electricity Statement of Opportunities.

Increases to transmission ratings for lines between Yass and Sydney West associated with the Waratah Super Battery Project are expected to be incorporated in coming weeks, which will likely decrease projected risks in New South Wales.

Implementation of Project EnergyConnect stage 2 and other transmission developments will occur closer to their commissioning

MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO’s website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-im

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END OF REPORT
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There’s also notes in there about PEC Stage 2.