AEMO (also) forecasts LOR2 for QLD on Monday 16th June 2025

Posted by Paul McArdleFriday 13th June 2025  1:14 PM   Topic: 2025-06-16

Earlier this morning we noted, and wrote, ‘AEMO updated forecasts for Tuesday 17th June 2025 show possible LOR2 for Queensland (in the middle of the day!)’.

Well, at 11:52 on Friday 13th June 2025 they also added a focus for Monday 16th June 2025 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     13/06/2025     11:52:07

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         127532
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         13/06/2025
External Reference      :         STPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 16/06/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:

From 0900 hrs to 1000 hrs 16/06/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 845 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 809 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

AEMO Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’

 

In this case we’ll grab a pre-configured ez2view Trend Widget and include a snapshot here to highlight some high-level stats:

2025-06-13-at-13-04-ez2view-QLD-trend

 

Clearly it seems (as noted on Monday) it’s planned network outages playing a significant role.

 

PS1 cancelled at 14:00 on Friday 13th June 2025

Briefly noting MN127533 published at 15:11 as follows:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 13/06/2025 15:11:24

——————————————————————-

Notice ID : 127533
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 13/06/2025
External Reference : STPASA – Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 16/06/2025

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 127532 is cancelled at 1400 hrs 13/06/2025.

No LOR2 condition is currently forecast in the STPASA period.

AEMO Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘

 

 

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About the Author

Paul McArdle
Paul was one of the founders of Global-Roam in February 2000. He is currently the CEO of the company and the principal author of WattClarity. Writing for WattClarity has become a natural extension of his work in understanding the electricity market, enabling him to lead the team in developing better software for clients. Before co-founding the company, Paul worked as a Mechanical Engineer for the Queensland Electricity Commission in the early 1990s. He also gained international experience in Japan, the United States, Canada, the UK, and Argentina as part of his ES Cornwall Memorial Scholarship.

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