Forecast MSL1 in Victoria for Tuesday 5th November 2024 (a.k.a. Melbourne Cup Day)

It seems it’s already become commonplace for forecast Minimum System Load alerts to be triggered for the Victorian region for weekends in spring 2024.

… for instance, there have been alerts for the coming weekend (Saturday 2nd November and Sunday 3rd November), but we’ve not noted them in articles.

However AEMO’s broadcast today of an alert for a weekday (albeit Melbourne Cup) is notable:

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MARKET NOTICE
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 From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     30/10/2024     15:09:34

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 Notice ID               :         119682
Notice Type ID          :         MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :         MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date              :         30/10/2024
External Reference      :         Forecast Minimum System Load 1 (MSL1) in the VIC Region on 05/11/2024

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 Reason :

 AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

 AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the Victorian region on 05/11/2024.

 Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1238 MW at 1300 hrs, and the advisory threshold is:
MSL1 – 1535 MW
MSL2 – 1035 MW
MSL3 – 535 MW

 The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:

From 1030 hrs to 1400 hrs 05/11/2024.

AEMO Operations 

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END OF REPORT
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Of course, there will be orders of magnitude fewer people watching NEM market screens on Tuesday than there will be tuning in to see some horses race….