The past couple weeks we’ve* had a range of people compiling our own review of the most recent quarter for GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2.
* as with prior iterations of this report, these are a collaborative effort between us at Global-Roam Pty Ltd and the team at Greenview Strategic Consulting. That’s what we mean here by ‘our’.
In parallel with that, we noticed that Wednesday 24th July 2024 saw the release of the other two regular quarterly reviews in the triptych, which is a bit unusual (as they normally don’t land on exactly the same day).
(A) Accessing these quarterly Reports
These reports are accessible as follows:
| AEMO
Quarterly Energy Dynamics (2024 Q2) Wed 24th July 2024 |
AER
Wholesale Markets Quarterly (2024 Q2) Wed 24th July 2024 |
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You can download the 84-page PDF of the report here:
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You can download the 25-page PDF of the report here:
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In conjunction with the report, the AEMO published the media release ‘Wintry weather on the east coast and warmer weather in the west, led to different generation trends during the June quarter’ … which notes: [the QED] ‘… highlights the important role of flexible gas-powered generation as the ultimate backstop for the National Electricity Market (NEM) during periods of reduced renewable generation. During the June quarter, low wind speeds and reduced rainfall in the southern NEM regions saw decreases in electricity supplied from wind (-20%) and hydro (-18%), while gas (+16%) and black coal (+7%) rose, helped by increased availability of Queensland’s black coal-fired generators.’
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In conjunction with the report, the AER published this summary page which notes: ‘Electricity spot prices increased in all regions except Queensland, with VWA prices ranging between $109 per MWh in Queensland to $189 per MWh in NSW. Prices increased due to a combination of higher demand, network and generator outages, and lower wind and solar output increasing the share of electricity generated by higher-priced gas and hydro.’
Worth noting that: 1) this AER quarterly report followed from the release (7 days earlier, on 17th July) of their report ‘Electricity prices above $5,000/MWh’ [during Q2]. 2) That high price review report was accompanied by the Media Release ‘AER reports on Q2 2024 high electricity price events’.
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(B) News Media coverage of these three reports?
On the day and afterwards, we’ve seen a range of media coverage of one, or both, of these reports.
The following is what we’ve seen – if/when we come across other articles, (and if time permits) we’ll add them in here:
1) Here on WattClarity:
(a) There’s this note, obviously
2) In the AFR we have seen…
(a) Angela MacDonald-Smith wrote ‘Cold snap confirms energy price surge, and need for gas and coal’ early on Wednesday 24th July.
3) In the Australian we have seen …
(a) Colin Packham wrote ‘Cost-of-living squeeze blow as wholesale electricity prices jump’ early on Wednesday 24th July.
4) In the Guardian we have seen …
(a) Peter Hannam wrote ‘Wholesale power prices rise sharply across Australia after cold snap but Queensland bucks trend’ early on Wednesday 24th July.
5) In SMH and the Age we have seen …
(a) Did not see anything in particular … but did not look closely.
6) In RenewEconomy we have seen …
(a) Giles Parkinson wrote ‘Electricity prices soar thanks to costly gas, coal outages and market manipulation’.
(b) Also, Giles Parkinson wrote ‘Battery storage doubles its influence in morning and evening peaks’.
7) In PV Magazine we have seen …
(a) David Carroll wrote ‘Winter weather highlights bigger role for batteries’.
8) In the ABC we have seen …
(a) Melissa Clarke wrote ‘Winter cold spell helped drive record demand for power and spike in electricity prices across national market’ early on Wednesday 24th July.
As a reader here, if you come across any other useful commentary, feel free to add as a comment
(C) On Social Media…
Obviously, Social Media is a rabbit hole that it’s easy to fall into – but I thought it was worth highlighting a few particularly useful contributions:
1) This note on LinkedIn by Andrew Richards (CEO of EUAA) is particularly worth reading … copied in here for convenience:
‘Despite some of the inevitable attention grabbing headlines, I think most of the reporting on the latest AEMO Quarterly Dynamics Report (Q2 2024) has been pretty fair. The same can’t be said for some commentary elsewhere where the usual special interest hobby horses have been taken for a gallop. This is very unhelpful.
The report itself identifies a number of factors driving wholesale prices including the variously described renewable energy “drought” and the key role of batteries and gas (as opposed to batteries or gas). Price volatility events, AKA generator outages and generator re-bidding (also identified recently by the AER) are also highlighted.
Of great interest to energy nerds is the role that transmission outages, in this case mostly planned, is having on wholesale prices. In an energy system that is increasingly disbursed, it is becoming almost impossible to schedule planned maintenance without causing a significant market impact. This will become a bigger problem as more centralised generation is withdrawn and more decentralised generation is installed. It seems that in the very near future no matter what piece of the transmission system you de-energise for maintenance you will impact 1,000’s of MW of generation capacity. Do we need some new guidelines or market rules about generator (or in the near future large scale batteries) re-bidding during planned network outages? One way or another a solution needs to be found.
The practical, physical and technical challenges are mounting up and it is clear much more work is needed (and probably money spent) if we are to reach a net zero energy system. It is unhelpful to ignore this or to wish it away, we just need to do the work.’
… I have highlighted a couple points that particularly resonate to me.
2) Earlier today, Ketan Joshi made a salient point here on LinkedIn that I’d (also) not seen anyone else note …copied here for convenience:
‘The fact that the first real rise in power sector emissions doesn’t even make it into the report summary, let alone a single piece of media coverage, of the latest Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) quarterly report speaks volumes.
Some of this is down to an abnormally low-wind year, but private corporate investment in clean power has unsurprisingly waned … ’
Will add other comments, if we come across them (and they resonate
I did miss poor Peter Hannam’s mention of emissions in the body of his piece about power price changes, so have updated my LinkedIn post accordingly, but I reckon my broader point still stands – it is super weird that such a significant change of direction – one that seems partly systemic beyond week-level fluctuations in wind output – isn’t getting more coverage!