Spring 2016 in the NEM
Articles about Spring in the NEM – September, October, November 2016
2016
Infigen Energy suffering from “wind correlation penalty” in South Australian wind farms
Some thoughts about the possible uplift to Infigen Energy revenues, stemming from higher forward contract prices in the South Australian region of the NEM
Ararat Wind Farm begins production in Victoria during August
Quick snap of Ararat Wind Farm starting up in August.
Increased complexity, and challenges, in this energy transition
Two slides (from BNEF and AEMO) that provide some context on the energy transition
Another day where LOR2 notice issued for SA – what does it mean?
AEMO issued a Market Notice this morning for an LOR2 “Low Reserve Condition” in South Australia. Here’s my sense of some of what’s happening.
How have weather patterns influenced Victorian electricity demand so far this winter?
Our guest author, Rob Davis, provides insights on how weather patterns are contributing to electricity consumption this winter – particularly in Victoria.
The war for dispatch: Who will control distributed energy?
In today’s energy sector, it is rare to get electricity networks, retailers, generators and system controllers in the same room at the same time. In a deconstructed market about to be transformed by distributed energy, how will decisions be made around how it is dispatched?
If I was going to assess Factors Contributing to the “truly remarkable” Q2 2016 prices, here are some starting places I’d look…
A starting list of factors that I’d look further into, if I was sucked into the “rabbit hole” of assessing all of the contributing factors leading to the Remarkable Prices seen in Q2 2016 – and which could continue into the future.
The Emotion-o-Meter
A figurative illustration of the broad range of people we’re increasingly seeing weighing into the discussion about the future of the energy sector. Itself a challenge for the transition.
A model’s just a model – it’s not reality (though some models might be useful)
Models are simplifications of reality. Some are more precise than others. Some are useful for different purposes.
Note – we see the “Energy Transition” as very broad
Quick note about energy transition
Win, lose or draw: Three scenarios for the electricity system in 2030
Cast your mind back 15 years to 2016. You probably don’t remember this, but 15 years ago people still debated whether the growth of distributed energy would fundamentally transform the Australian electricity system.
Hornsdale Wind Farm starting up at a time in South Australia when every MWh matters
Recording early days of electricity production at the Hornsdale Wind Farm
Reviewing Q2 prices – short-term excursion, or more systemic change in pricing patterns?
Some initial analysis about the remarkable pricing outcomes seen across all regions of the NEM through Q2 2016
Exceptional pricing during Q2 in South Australia (but really across all regions) hurting major energy users
Some brief notes about a changed pricing pattern observed in Q2 2016
The opacity of distributed, small-scale solar PV output
A comparison of the output of the two different estimates now available for aggregate state-wide output from small-scale solar PV systems – the ARENA-funded APVI method, and a new method from AEMO
Winter 2016 in the NEM
Articles we write through winter 2016 about what we see happening then
Update on “cost” of Tassie’s energy crisis
Some quick calcs to update a ball-park estimate on the cost of the Tasmanian energy crisis
Brown coal generation ceases in South Australia with the closure of Northern Power Station
A quick post to mark the end of brown-coal fired generation in South Australia, with the closure of Northern Power Station
Quick wrap of the winners of our “best forecaster in the NEM” competition for extended summer 2015-16
Announcing the winners of our 7 related competitions for “best forecaster in the NEM” summer 2015-16