Large Energy Users feeling the strain (such as at Tomago)
A short article tying together two independent events - both related to Energy Intensive Energy Users
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Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Slides circulated, from the Nelson Review briefings during May 2025
Given the instructions were ‘Feel free to share it more widely with your colleagues and networks’, here's the slide deck from the Nelson Review presentations through May 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch...
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused...
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Across 188 Semi-Scheduled DUIDs – Dispatch Error at 16:15 on Monday 26th May 2025
This is my second article today relating to events on Monday 26th May 2025 - with this article looking at Dispatch Error for each of the 188 x...
Noting the dust storm on Monday 26th May 2025 – and impact on electricity supply-demand
Belatedly noting the dust storm that past through South Australia on Monday 26th May 2025, which Andrew Miskelly of Weatherzone documented in a video on Bsky.
Evening price volatility in NSW on Sunday 1st June 2025
A short note with a NEMwatch snapshot at 17:15 to mark some low-level price action in NSW on Sunday 1st June 2025
Callide C back online, Sunday 1st June 2025
A short article to note that Callide C3 came back online in the early hours of Sunday morning 1st June 2025.
A trend of aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ for each Semi-Scheduled fuel type on Monday 26th May 2025
Let’s now return to Monday 26th May 2025 to look at aggregate ‘Dispatch Error’ across both Semi-Scheduled fuel types for all dispatch intervals in the day.
A quick look at system frequency, with 2 x coal units offline overnight into Saturday 31st May 2025
It’s fitting to book-end the week with a look at frequency performance overnight (into Saturday 31st May 2025) with two coal unit outages in NSW overnight to see...
Two slides we might refer back to later, from the Nelson Review presentation (Thu 29th May 2025 in Brisbane)
As noted in yesterday evening’s article (about one big ‘wrinkle’), I was off to the Brisbane session of the Nelson Review today. Here's two slides that jumped out.
Evening volatility on Thursday 29th May 2025
A very short note with a snapshot of NEMwatch at 17:35 NEM time to mark the first dispatch interval this evening with a spot price above $1,000/MWh.
Poor dispatch performance of VRE (collectively) on Monday 26th May 2025 sufficiently large to drive frequency outside of NOFB
Prior to the Brisbane session of the Nelson Review Panel (on Thu 29th May 2025) we take a look at Dispatch Error in the 16:15 dispatch interval on...
Price volatility in NSW on 28 May, 2025
The NSW dispatch energy price jumped to 17,560 $/MWh in the 16:50 dispatch interval on 28 May, 2025.