Prices up in every region, on Wednesday evening 11th June 2025
A very quick note for Wednesday 11th June 2025 with this snapshot from NEMwatch at 17:00 (NEM time) to record the start of some elevated prices.
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Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short...
AEMO notes increased forecast for Unserved Energy (USE) in QLD due to network outages scheduled between Tue 17th to Fri 20th June 2025
Yesterday (Tuesday 10th June 2025) at 14:21 the AEMO published MN127491 that noted 'The increase in USE in Queensland ... is primarily driven by network outages scheduled between...
Cold winter evening driving NEM-wide demand higher, such as on Tuesday 10th June 2025
A cold winter evening (Tuesday 10th June 2025) is driving electricity demand higher, as captured in this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:10 dispatch interval.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use...
Unplanned outage at YWPS3 (tube leak) extended (due to air duct collapse)
Yallourn unit 3 came offline for a tube leak - but ABC reports (on Mon 9th June 2025) that 'an air duct in unit three collapsed during maintenance',...
Beyond the fence line: Why risk needs to be part of your renewable project narrative
This guest-authored post by Cameron Shield from Lockton follows on from his presentation at the CEC's Investor Forum earlier this year, where he urged the audience to "sell...
Release of Report into Broken Hill blackout in October 2024
On Thursday 5th June 2025, the NSW Government released its 158-page report into ‘The electricity outages affecting Far West NSW in October 2024’.
Forecast LORx conditions for QLD, NSW and VIC in the coming week
This article uses the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget, snapshot from ez2view at 07:25 on Monday 9th June 2025 to sum up some changing forecasts for LOR1 and/or LOR2 in...
The commencement of Frequency Performance Payments (FPP)
Yesterday (Sunday 8th June 2025) saw the commencement of the new Frequency Performance Payments (a.k.a. FPP) method.
Cumulative ‘worm line’ view of NEMwide wind production in 2025 Q2 (to Sunday 8th June 2025)
Winter 2025 has arrived, with a cold front driving high wind production - which prompts this initial look in wind production for 2025 Q2 to date.
Large Energy Users feeling the strain (such as at Tomago)
A short article tying together two independent events - both related to Energy Intensive Energy Users
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Slides circulated, from the Nelson Review briefings during May 2025
Given the instructions were ‘Feel free to share it more widely with your colleagues and networks’, here's the slide deck from the Nelson Review presentations through May 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch...
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused...