May we live in ‘interesting’ times?
Whilst some of us have thrown aside what we had been planning to focus on in order to explore the very interesting case of the suspect data glitch and Frequency Disruption yesterday, more alerts from ez2view have drawn our attention to a series of Market Notices warning of forecast Minimum System Load (a.k.a. MSL) conditions for South Australia in the coming days.
I’ve tabulated these here:
| Day and Date | Forecast MSL1 … for this day |
Forecast MSL2 … for this day |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday 8th November 2025 |
At 11:12 (NEM time) on Friday 7th November 2025, the AEMO published MN130458 as follows: ——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 130458 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 08/11/2025. Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are: The demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period: Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data . AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
|
Not for this day. |
| Sunday 9th November 2025 |
At 11:13 (NEM time) on Friday 7th November 2025, the AEMO published MN130461 as follows: ——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 130461 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 09/11/2025. Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are: The demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period: Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data . AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
|
Not for this day.
|
| Monday 10th November 2025 |
I’ve not checked why, but there’s no notice triggered for Monday 10th November 2025 (interspersed between two days on either side with notices). Perhaps some weather effect?
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| Tuesday 11th November 2025 |
At 11:12 (NEM time) on Friday 7th November 2025, the AEMO published MN130459 as follows: ——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 130459 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 11/11/2025. Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are: The demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period: Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data . AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
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At 11:12 (NEM time) on Friday 7th November 2025, the AEMO published MN130462 as follows: ——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 130462 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 11/11/2025. Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are: The demand is forecast to be below the MSL2 threshold for the following period: Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data . AEMO is seeking a market response. AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
|
| Wednesday 12th November 2025 |
At 11:23 (NEM time) on Friday 7th November 2025, the AEMO published MN130460 as follows: ——————————————————————- From : AEMO ——————————————————————- Notice ID : 130460 ——————————————————————- Reason : AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the SA region on 12/11/2025. Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are: The demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period: Forecast demand refers to forecast Operational Demand that excludes contribution from Significant Non-Scheduled Generation: see definitions at https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data . AEMO Operations ——————————————————————-
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Not for this day.
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Whilst we’re getting used to seeing forecast MSL1 warnings for Victoria, I believe these are the first we’ve seen for South Australia (or any other region)?
So they are another thing to watch out for…
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