Only 400MW spare (a 4% IRPM) in the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ on Wednesday 22nd January 2025

Another quick snapshot from NEMwatch at 18:40 to reveal a wafer thin supply-demand balance in the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’:

We see:

1)  The IRPM for the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ down at only 4%

2)  That’s a 400MW spare capacity buffer resulting from 11,095MW of Available Generation (with sun setting in Brisbane, so solar PV declining to not-very-much) and 10,695MW local demand supplied from local sources

3)  No surprise that the AEMO is noting a forecast LOR2 for today as follows:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     22/01/2025     18:14:27

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Notice ID               :         123593
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         22/01/2025
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 22/01/2025

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following Period:

[1.] From 1830 hrs 22/01/2025 to 1900 hrs 22/01/2025.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 456 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 343 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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