The afternoon of Wednesday 27th November saw tight supply and demand balance, NSW Energy prices at the market price cap for a string of intervals, actual LOR2 conditions, and activation of the RERT mechanism, but in the end, no load shedding (LOR3 conditions) eventuated.
We have already posted about some of the events that afternoon in real time here on WattClarity, but in this post we’d like to set out an after-the-fact summary chronology of events, as a sort of index, for reference, as we often do for these kinds of major events that capture a wide range of attention from interested observers and the media.
| Time (Dispatch interval) (remembering this is ‘NEM time’ and it is for the 5 minutes ending) |
Event or development during this dispatch interval |
|---|---|
| 10:00 (Market Notice 09:58) |
Intention to commence RERT negotiations for the period 14:30 to 20:30 (Market notice #121038) |
| 10:40 (Market Notice 10:36) |
Intention to implement an AEMO Intervention event (Market notice #121054) |
| 14:30 (Market Notice 14:48) |
Energy price volatility begins in NSW, with price at $17499.89, earlier than expected based on forecasts.
Actual LOR1 declared (Market notice #121089) forecast to exist until 16:30. WattClarity post: Actual LOR1 condition eventuates in NSW Significant bound constraints: N>>NIL_998_18, N>>NIL_964_84_S |
| 14:35 | NSW Energy price $17499.89 |
| 14:40 | NSW Energy price at the MPC $17500
Over-constrained dispatch (OCD) interval. N>>NIL_998_18 constraint violated. |
| 14:45 |
NSW Energy price $16000.73
Significant bound constraints: N>>NIL_39_17, N>>NIL_964_84_S |
| 15:05 | AEMO media release regarding low electricity reserves in NSW. NSW Government update on hot weather.
WattClarity post: NSW Government enacts protocols to “reduce electricity demand from government agencies” |
| 15:10 (Market Notice 15:06) |
Over-constrained dispatch interval. N>>NIL_39_17 constraint violated.
Negative residue management NSW1-VIC1 started operating. (Market notice #121093) N>>BDBU_970_051 outage constraint binding (Out = Bundey to Buronga (6F) 330kV line) 15:10 interval prices are subject to review due to over-constrained dispatch (Market notice #121092). |
| 15:15 | Over-constrained dispatch interval. N>>NIL_85_86_S, N>>NIL_39_17, NRM_NSW1_VIC1 constraints violated. |
| 15:20 | Over-constrained dispatch interval. |
| 15:25 | Over-constrained dispatch interval. |
| 15:30 (Market Notice 15:48) |
Actual LOR2 declared (Market notice #121101) and forecast to continue until 17:00.
NSW market demand peaks at 11303MW Over-constrained dispatch interval. |
| 15:35 | Over-constrained dispatch interval. |
| 15:40 | NSW Energy price back down to $1242.43 |
| 15:45 (Market Notice 15:42) |
RERT triggered to be dispatched from 15:50, forecast to apply until 18:00 (Market notice #121100)
NSW Energy price $602.92 Intervention pricing intervals from 15:45 (the 15:50 interval) (Market notice #121102) WattClarity post: Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader triggered |
| 15:50 | RERT dispatched at 65MW. WattClarity post (with benefit of next-day data): RERT dispatched on 27 November 2024 in NSW
Demand also drops, likely related to weather change. WattClarity post: Early reprieve for NSW electricity supply from demand pressure. |
| 16:45 | Final interval of RERT dispatch, final interval of intervention pricing. |
| 16:50 (Market Notice 16:45) |
Actual LOR2 ends (Market notice #121105) |
| 16:50 (Market Notice 16:47) |
Activation of RERT ended, intervention pricing ends. (Market notice #121110) |
| 16:55 (Market Notice 16:50) |
Actual LOR1 updated, still in progress, now forecast to exist until 19:00 (Market notice #121106) |
| 17:05 (Market Notice 17:03) |
Negative residue management ceases(Market notice #121111) |
| 20:05 (Market Notice 20:03) |
Actual LOR1 ends (Market notice #121128) |
We may return to add more links and information to this summary as we continue to analyse the contributing factors and market outcomes.
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