AEMO now forecasting possible LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Wednesday 27th November 2024
The most recent ST PASA forecast now shows a sliver of forecast LOR3 (i.e. forecast Load Shedding) for the NSW region on Wed 27th Nov 2024
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
The forecasts for LORx in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have been dialled down considerably … why is that the case?
In the >36 hours since an article on Wednesday the forecasts for LORx on Tuesday 26th November 2024 have become less strident. We start to look at why…
Noting the new “Firm Energy Reliability Mechanism” being proposed in South Australia
Worth noting the proposed ‘Firm Energy Reliability Mechanism’ from the South Australian Government – with live online information session Monday 25th November 2024.
Noting the ECA’s Rule Change Submission for Energy Users to have access to Real Time Data for their own consumption
Whilst publishing articles here today about Rule Change Proposals, it’s worth me also flagging the ECA proposal for ‘Access to real time data for consumers’.
Delta’s ‘relatively urgent’ Rule Change reverts to the (slower) ‘standard rules consultation process’ at the AEMC
Today the AEMC weekly email notes that:
‘We will use the standard rules consultation process to assess Delta Electricity’s proposal to allow cash as credit support. We received a valid objection to the proposed use of the expedited process, meaning the standard approach will be used instead.’ Also today was the closure date for submissions (as noted in the Consultation Paper).
Here’s a few things to watch, w.r.t. the forecast tight supply-demand balance in NSW (and QLD) for early next week
In this article on Wednesday evening 20th November 2024 we suggest a couple factors to keep an eye on, leading into the expected tight supply-demand balance (and possible load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024.
It’s back! Forecast LOR3 for NSW on Monday 26th November 2024
It should be no surprise to readers that we’ve more recently slipped back below that threshold line (back into ‘forecast LOR3’ territory) in MN120725 published at 17:10 on Wed 20th Nov 2024.
AEMO notes cancellation of forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024
On Wednesday afternoon, the AEMO notes that the Forecast LOR3 condition (for NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024) is cancelled … but only just.
An inter-regional interconnector refers to *the whole of* the transmission path between RRNs
We already noted this a few times recently, but we thought it would be worth separating out as its own article under the ‘Energy Literacy’ category, as it’s likely we’ll be referring back to it increasingly in future.
AEMO updates forecast LOR3 for NSW on Tuesday 26th November 2024 (less severe)
AEMO’s latest update at 10:00 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024 in MN120702 shows the forecast severity of LOR3 (i.e. load shedding) in NSW on Tuesday 26th Nov 2024 has dropped (but not disappeared).
Bayswater Unit 4 begins to return to service – Wednesday morning 20th November 2024
Given forecasts for early next week in NSW, it’s some welcome news to see that the BW04 unit has commenced its return to service process.
AEMO publishes ‘Request for Generator Recall Information for the period from 25/11/2024 to 26/11/2024 for NSW Region’
Things are not currently* looking rosy for the NSW region early next week … so it’s no surprise to see AEMO asking (on Wednesday morning 20th Nov 2024) for generator recall information.
Frequency drop coincident with trip of Callide C3 unit, on Wednesday morning 20th November 2024
A short note to flag the apparent trip of Callide C3 just prior to 06:35 (NEM time) on Wednesday 20th November 2024.
Updated forecast for LOR3 for Tuesday 26th November 2024 grows more severe
AEMO’s MN120671 forecast LOR3 was published at 15:33 NEM time on Tuesday 19th November 2024 – so it’s worth noting that ~7 hours later, MN120698 was published – with a deeper forecast LOR3 highlighted.
AEMO MT PASA update on 19th November 2024 notes Low Reserve Conditions for NSW and Victoria for summer 2024-25
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
AEMO updates forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024
At 04:05 on Tue 19th November 2024 the AEMO published MN120652 noting a forecast LOR2 condition for NSW for Monday 25th November 2024.
Evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 18th November 2024
A short record of some evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday evening 18th November 2024 … with the ‘N-MNYS_5_WG_CLOSE’ constraint set a familiar factor.
A question about (currently) planned outages for Eraring Power Station through until (currently planned closure) in August 2027
It’s roughly 6 months since the decision was made to extend the life of Eraring Power Station. I’ve had a question for a while, but have only had time to look now – what does that mean, in terms of planned outages to 2027?
Burst of volatility in QLD and NSW, on Friday evening 15th November 2024
A very quick record of evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Friday 15th November 2024.
With YWPS1 and LYA2 back online, Victorian directions for System Strength cancelled
On Friday morning 15th November 2024 we see the return to service of both YWPS1 and LYA2 – coincident with the cancellation of Victorian directions for System Strength.