Today marks the go-live date for the AEMO’s new unit-level availability data and other STPASA changes, on 31st July 2025
New unit-level availability data and other changes to the STPASA process are scheduled to go live from today.
All Posts
CSIRO releases the 2024-25 GenCost Final Report on Tuesday 29th July 2025
The CSIRO published the final version of their 2024/25 GenCost report yesterday.
Lower 1-second FCAS volatility continues in SA
A brief article to note the continued impact of the Tailem Bend to Tungkillo line outage on FCAS prices.
NEM-wide wind generation exceeds 10GW for the first time, on Friday evening 25th July 2025
A belated post to note a new all-time record for wind production was broken on Friday evening.
Basslink flows shift since end of agreement on 30th June 2025
An agreement restraining how Basslink is bid into the energy market has ended, resulting in changes in bidding and energy flows.
Four questions we’re pondering ahead of the 2025 Clean Energy Summit in Sydney next week
A primer ahead of the CEC’s Clean Energy Summit in Sydney next week, highlighting just a few of the many questions on our minds.
Volatility within the contingency FCAS market in SA today, Thursday 24th July 2025
A short post to note some price volatility for the 'Lower 1 Sec' contingency FCAS commodity in SA today, with prices flickering between the FCAS price floor and the market price cap.
Frequency Performance Payments 44 days in
An initial review of payment and cost outcomes of the first 44 days of financial operation of the FPP arrangements.
Suspect SCADA drove data discrepancy on 9th December 2024
The incident description in the scheduling error declaration provides us with a glimpse into the underlying cause.
A quick view into constraints on the Heywood interconnector, on Tuesday 22nd July 2025
A quick view of our congestion map where constraints on the Heywood interconnector may elevate risk of high energy and FCAS prices this week.
Guest Authored Posts
Not all renewable projects are created equal: Why approval times vary dramatically across Australia
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
Detailed Analysis
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.