Slides circulated, from the Nelson Review briefings during May 2025
Given the instructions were ‘Feel free to share it more widely with your colleagues and networks’, here's the slide deck from the Nelson Review presentations through May 2025.
All Posts
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
A map showing the geographic spread of semi-scheduled dispatch errors on Monday 26th May 2025
Dan adds to our ongoing case study into the events of Monday 26th May 2025, by mapping the dispatch error across all semi-scheduled units for the 16:15 dispatch interval that afternoon.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
A long-run trend of monthly average Contingency FCAS prices in NSW
Another short article with this trend from the ez2view ‘Trends Editor’ to summarise the overall trend of (monthly average) prices in the 8 x Contingency FCAS markets focused on the NSW region.
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Across 188 Semi-Scheduled DUIDs – Dispatch Error at 16:15 on Monday 26th May 2025
This is my second article today relating to events on Monday 26th May 2025 - with this article looking at Dispatch Error for each of the 188 x Semi-Scheduled units to 16:15.
Noting the dust storm on Monday 26th May 2025 – and impact on electricity supply-demand
Belatedly noting the dust storm that past through South Australia on Monday 26th May 2025, which Andrew Miskelly of Weatherzone documented in a video on Bsky.
Guest Authored Posts
Beyond the fence line: Why risk needs to be part of your renewable project narrative
This guest-authored post by Cameron Shield from Lockton follows on from his presentation at the CEC's Investor Forum earlier this year, where he urged the audience to "sell risk, don't buy insurance".
Stacking up: Unlocking multiple revenue streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Detailed Analysis
Three headline observations, about the use of proxies for System Frequency in Frequency Control mechanisms
Various authors have shared articles about frequency, frequency control and Regulation FCAS in recent times (including 6 from Linton). Here's three things that jumped out to me in these pieces of analysis.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...
NEMDE nightmares – parallel pathways and clashing constraints
Prompted by a question by a client in a training session for a new ez2view user, guest author Allan O'Neil has written 2,940 words to explain the price outcome in one particular dispatch interval...
The state-of-charge for 2024: The highs and lows of the big battery boom
Following on from a similar review this time last year, Dan provides an updated look at the economics and performances within the NEM's big battery fleet, making use of our recently released GSD2024.
Indicators of solar farm performance with GSD2024
Seeking indications of possible performance at solar sites announced in the CIS tender of 2024, we inspect statistics of nearby solar farms using the GSD2024.
New FCAS resources dominate enabled levels in 2024
Using the latest GSD – GSD2024 – we take the opportunity to reflect on FCAS enablement and how enabled levels are changing between technology types.
Keeping up with the curtailment 2024: A little? too much? or much ado about nothing?
Drawing from our freshly released GSD2024, Dan provides some deeper insights into curtailment in the NEM, beyond the headline totals that were a topic of much online discussion earlier this week.
The GSD2024 (Generator Statistical Digest 2024) is released
It's Wednesday 5th February 2025, and we* are pleased to release the GSD2024 … following a focused effort across both teams over the period since the changeover from 2024 into 2025. Some details here,...