Evening volatility ongoing (Thursday 26th June 2025), with NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ above 31,000MW
A further update on the volatility and high demand seen on Thursday evening 26th June 2025.
All Posts
Run of evening volatility starts early, on Thursday 26th June 2025
Here’s a NEMwatch snapshot at 16:50 (NEM time) on Thursday 26th June 2025 with the run of volatility in the southern regions already well underway.
AER approves application for Basslink to be converted into a regulated transmission service
After rejecting an earlier proposal, the AER has today approved the conversion of Basslink into a regulated transmission service.
Cold weather drives electricity ‘Market Demand’ higher (and higher than AEMO’s earlier forecasts)
I thought it would be worth adding a couple snapshots from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at ‘Market Demand’ as at various dispatch intervals on Thursday 26th June 2025 looking backwards ~7...
Morning volatility in the southern regions – Thursday 26th June 2025
Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 07:25 to record some morning volatility on Thursday 26th June 2025
Opaque Congestion and Hidden Curtailment … such as on Tue 24th June 2024 with the ‘N-DPWG_63_X5’ constraint set invoked
It was now just over 5 years ago when Marcelle wrote ‘Not as simple as it appears – estimating curtailment of renewable generation’. This week's invocation of the 'N-DPWG_63_X5' constraint set provides a great...
Wholesale Demand Response Capacity in June 2025
WDR capacity has increased by 23 MW since our last look, and much of it happened recently.
Another look at conditions in South Australia next week as a forecast LOR3 now appears for Wednesday
An updated look at conditions in SA early next week, where a forecast LOR3 is now appearing for next Wednesday. We also look at the invocation schedule for constraint sets within the region.
Frequency change associated with coal generation events
System frequency shows improved resilience to sudden coal generation events since 2020.
Loy Yang A2 apparent trip from 443MW on Wednesday 25th June 2025
A very short midday article on Wednesday 25th June 2025 noting this apparent trip of LYA2 unit from 443MW just prior to 11:31 (NEM time).
Guest Authored Posts
Triple C conditions (cold, calm and cloudy) across the NEM last Thursday evening 26th June 2025
Carl Daley examines the underlying conditions and outcomes that occurred last Thursday evening, the 26th of June.
We need more research on storage trading
In this guest post, Greg Williams calls for more research into how storage bidding—particularly auto-rebidding—is reshaping price formation and competition as flexible assets take centre stage in the NEM.
Detailed Analysis
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Four days in the NEM in four minutes
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
How did Cyclone Alfred impact electricity demand?
By day-end on the Friday the 7th demand levels were down more than 40% in the Gold Coast. Other areas were also impacted.
Three headline observations, about the use of proxies for System Frequency in Frequency Control mechanisms
Various authors have shared articles about frequency, frequency control and Regulation FCAS in recent times (including 6 from Linton). Here's three things that jumped out to me in these pieces of analysis.
Is VRE forecastable? (Part 1 in what might be a series)
Over many years we've invested deeply in analysing the nuanced answer to the question 'Is VRE Forecastable?'. This article (which has almost been posted many times before) is triggered today by yet one more...