The violation of the ‘N>NIL_998_18’ constraint equation
Documenting the violation of the ‘N>NIL_998_18’ constraint equation on Thursday 18th December 2025.
All Posts
About the delay in expected return to service of Vales Point 5
This morning we noted the delay in return to service for Vales Point unit 5 - here, we take a look.
Evening volatility underway in NSW on Thursday 18th December 2025
Thursday evening 18th December 2025 is upon us now, and the volatility in NSW has commenced – as we see in this NEMwatch snapshot at 18:20 (NEM time).
AEMO signals intention to negotiate RERT contracts as evening supply–demand tightens in NSW on Thursday 18th December 2025
In the last few minutes the AEMO have issued a market notice signalling its intention to commence RERT negotiations for the NSW region during this evening’s predicted period of supply-demand tightness.
‘Actual LOR1’ in NSW from 15:43 on Thursday 18th December 2025
At 15:43 (NEM time) on Thursday 18th December 2025, the AEMO issued MN131786 noting 'Actual LOR1' in NSW.
Forecast violation for 3 x System Normal constraint equations on Thursday evening 18th December 2025
Another short note as Thursday afternoon 18th December 2025 advances, to flag the forecast violation of 3 different constraint equations in NSW this evening.
The ‘#NSW1_E_20251218’ constraint equation, on Thursday 18th December 2025
A quick note, about the ‘#NSW1_E_20251218’ constraint equation (which is invoked in the ‘#NSW1_E_20251218’ constraint set) – at the 13:00 dispatch interval (NEM time) early Thursday afternoon 18th December 2025.
AEMO propose rule change to reform compensation frameworks
The AEMO have proposed a rule change to consolidate and streamline the NEM’s various compensation schemes, in an attempt to address some of the issues identified from the June 2022 market suspension.
‘Sometimes diversity does not help’ … such as on Friday 31st October 2025
On Wednesday 3rd December, the AEMO held its annual Intermittent Generation Forum and discussed a number of different aspects of challenges and opportunities, including with respect to the frequency weakness on Friday 31st October...
The ‘forecast LOR3’ that persisted through the night slips back to ‘forecast LOR2’ … but might rise again
Someone’s just asked me, so for the benefit of readers I’ve shared below a zoomed-in version of that last ez2view window (now at 08:50 NEM time Thursday 18th December 2025) for an updated view.
Guest Authored Posts
Runway cost allocation – ready for liftoff?
Allan O'Neil unpacks a proposal under consideration by the AEMC to apply “runway” cost allocation to contingency FCAS, explaining how this could materially change who pays for frequency security in the NEM.
What the hail is happening with Brisbane’s weather?
Anthony Cornelius from WeatherWatch explains the climate drivers behind Southeast Queensland’s unusually intense 2025 hail season — context that matters for those tracking how extreme weather is evolving and influencing the energy market.
Detailed Analysis
Are CIS-ters doin’ it for themselves? Part 1: Tracking the progress of CIS projects post-award
Recent debate has centred on the CIS’s success so far. In part one of this four-part series, we look at how projects have progressed since being awarded a contract.
A clean break: Wivenhoe and Swanbank operating profiles pre and post CleanCo takeover
Prompted by a presentation from CleanCo’s Rimu Nelson at the Queensland Energy Summit, Dan examines how operational and bidding patterns at Wivenhoe and Swanbank E have evolved since CleanCo assumed control in 2019.
Highlighting particular (frequency and/or AggROT) events through 2024 and 2025
In this article, we tie together various events since 1st January 2024 that featured either System Frequency outside the NOFB and large AggROT for Semi-Scheduled assets.
An updated tabular list of instances of large AggROT across Semi-Scheduled units
Earlier today we trended the incidence of large Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units. In this updated tabulated list, we list each of the largest instances from January 2024 to June 2025.
Frequency performance payments 44 days in, part 2
Categories with a longer bar left of zero are losing more of their spot energy market revenue to regulation and PFR costs.
Basslink flows shift since end of agreement on 30th June 2025
An agreement restraining how Basslink is bid into the energy market has ended, resulting in changes in bidding and energy flows.
Frequency Performance Payments 44 days in
An initial review of payment and cost outcomes of the first 44 days of financial operation of the FPP arrangements.
The trend continues: a review of Q2 2025 spot prices
For nearly a decade, we’ve published annual reviews of Q2 prices to highlight the growing volatility during this period. Here’s our latest edition, examining how Q2 2025 compared.