As the 5th article in an evolving series that progressively explores the (apparent self-forecasting glitch and) frequency spike on Tuesday 19th August 2025, we take an early look at Solar Farm performance.
A very short article with a snapshot from ez2view at the 11:15 dispatch interval – highlighting that Lower 1-second FCAS prices in the South Australian region are spiking (yet again!).
A first article about an unplanned (and potentially significant) outage at Yallourn unit 2 that began on Tuesday 26th August 2025 due to 'LP turbine issues'.
A short note with a snapshot of the ‘Generator Outages’ widget in ez2view (at 08:30 on Wed 27th Aug 2025) to highlight some coal units offline.
Following from the release of the 2025 ESOO last Thursday, the subsequent weekly MT PASA run warns of *forecast* LRC (and unserved energy) in South Australia.
An article in the Australian by Colin Packham prompts a look in AEMO data about expectations for when Tamar Valley CCGT might be switched off.
On Sunday 24th August 2025, Administered Pricing for FCAS in South Australia ended ... when will the ‘S-TBTU’ constraint set re-emerge?
Earlier today we trended the incidence of large Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units. In this updated tabulated list, we list each of the largest instances from January 2024 to June 2025.
It's ~18 months since we took a look at the trend of large instances of Aggregate Raw Off-Target across all Semi-Scheduled units. In this article we update the analysis with data to 30th June...
The (concerning) frequency spike across the NEM in the middle of the day (Tuesday 19th August 2025) has triggered many proximate questions - understandable - but also has raised these 3 Broader Questions.
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
Alice Matthews examines how approval times for renewables vary widely by state and technology — with NSW wind projects facing the longest delays.
Rainfall and cloud cover has split Australia this autumn, delivering a mixed bag of solar irradiance conditions for solar farms across the NEM.
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.