Forecast Minimum System Load for Victoria next Saturday 25th October 2025
A short note to flag MN129813 looking forward to next Saturday 25th October 2025, flagging possible MSL1 in Victoria.
All Posts
Considerable uncertainty, with respect to what might unfold in NSW next Wednesday 22nd October 2025
Following a series of Market Notices from AEMO with respect to forecast LORx conditions for NSW next Wednesday 22nd October 2025, we take a first look.
Price spike in NSW (and QLD!) at 14:55 on Friday 17th October 2025
A very quick article to record the price spike (for ENERGY) in the NSW region at 14:55 earlier today (Friday 17th October 2025) ... and Contingency Lower in QLD.
How the NEM BESS fleet is operating on peak days, and how to be a savvy operator
In this guest article, Matt Grover from Fluence draws on operational data and real-world trading experience to unpack how Australia’s grid-scale batteries performed across three June 2025 peak days — and what capabilities belong...
Peeling the second layer of the onion, with respect to the (SemiSched-induced) frequency weakness on Thursday 16th October 2025
Having already noted the ‘Weakness in frequency stability on Thursday afternoon 16th October 2025’, we take a look at the causes - for the four high-profile dispatch intervals.
Aldoga Solar Farm on Sunday 12th October 2025 – Part 2
In this article we inspect power deviations from dispatched units that would have contributed to the frequency rise, and the deviations that would have contributed to the correction.
Weakness in frequency stability on Thursday afternoon 16th October 2025
The worst periods of frequency stability on Thursday 16th October 2025 were *not* with the simultaneous trip of YWPS3 and YWPS4, but rather later and the day - and look similar to patterns seen...
Both YWPS3 and YWPS4 back online overnight
A quick follow-on early Friday morning 17th October 2025 to note that both YWPS3 and YWPS4 made it back online overnight.
Differing return to service expectations for YWPS3 and YWPS4, following simultaneous trips
Following the simultaneous trips (on Thu 16th Oct 2025) of YWPS3 and YWPS4, we take a look at current return to service expectations.
System frequency during simultaneous trips at YWPS3 and YWPS4 on Thursday 16th October 2025
System frequency remained within the NOFB, appears well managed given the supply loss approached 600 MW.
Guest Authored Posts
Runway cost allocation – ready for liftoff?
Allan O'Neil unpacks a proposal under consideration by the AEMC to apply “runway” cost allocation to contingency FCAS, explaining how this could materially change who pays for frequency security in the NEM.
What the hail is happening with Brisbane’s weather?
Anthony Cornelius from WeatherWatch explains the climate drivers behind Southeast Queensland’s unusually intense 2025 hail season — context that matters for those tracking how extreme weather is evolving and influencing the energy market.
Detailed Analysis
Feedback we have received about the 2019 edition of our Generator Statistical Digest
Just over 4 months have passed since the release of the Generator Statistical Digest 2019. We take a look back at some of the compliments and comments we've received and seen from a variety...
Analytical challenge – recognising the separate components in Risk, and their influence
A simple refresher on two core components that combine in order to define risk - probability and consequence.
First look at South Australia islanded on Saturday evening, 16th Nov 2019
A first (and perhaps only - as this took longer than initially planned) walk through some of the interesting points of what happened yesterday (Sat 16th Nov 2019) when South Australia islanded from the...
Two big reasons why we’re engaging in forensic analysis of NEM events
There are a number of reasons why we're completing the analysis we are sharing via WattClarity - here are two big ones.
Do you know of people who can help us?
Readers at WattClarity might recall that we have asked the question above a couple of times in recent weeks – and a big thanks to those who responded already! We’re blessed with opportunities at...
5 FAQs we’re asked about the Generator Report Card (for discussion at AIE this evening)
We've been invited by the Australian Institute of Energy (AIE) to speak this evening in Sydney about some of the lessons learnt in the process of completing our Generator Report Card. Here's some context...
Villain #5 – not focusing on the real problems
Fifteen months after first speaking at Clean Energy Summit about the train wreck that's ongoing in terms of our mismanaged energy transition (and coincident with another industry gathering in the form of the AFR...
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.