High electricity demand forecast for Queensland – on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week
Looks like being an interesting day on Wednesday next week (14th February 2018) with high temperatures currently forecast for parts of both QLD and NSW
Victorian demand rises above 9,000MW – which (in combination with other factors) leads to a volatile day in the southern regions
On a day when high temperatures drove demand in Victoria above 9,000MW (and NEM-wide demand above 30,000MW) we saw some price volatility – with prices in VIC and SA up around $14,000/MWh
Queensland’s Scheduled Demand for electricity topped 9,000MW today (Wed 31st Jan) for the first time in summer 2017-18
Electricity demand in Queensland today reached 9072MW in the 16:40 dispatch interval, passing 9,000MW for the first time this summer.
Sunday 28th January sees Victorian electricity demand (Scheduled, and Operational) above 9,000MW
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
Villain #3 – those at either extreme of the Emotion-o-meter
It seems to us that the people at either extreme of the Emotion-o-meter are causing this energy transition to see-saw off the tracks. For this reason they are Villain #3.
If I were going to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday 18th and Friday 19th, here’s a couple things I would look into…
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Some perspectives on events last Thursday and Friday
Some observations about the events across Victoria and South Australia of Thursday 18th and Friday 19th January 2018.
AEMO dispatches Reserve Trader into a boiling Victorian region on Friday 19th January 2018
Reserve Trader dispatched
AEMO announces intention to (possibly) intervene in Victoria for Friday 19th January (by invoking Reserve Trader)
AEMO announces the possibility of dispatching “Reserve Trader” tomorrow to address a forecast tight supply/demand balance.
Tight supply/demand balance forecast for SA, VIC and TAS on Thursday and Friday
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
Friday 12th January saw high instantaneous wind output in South Australia (but not quite a new record)
Prompted by a tweet referencing our RenewEconomy-sponsored NEMwatch Widget, we have a quick look at all-time peak instantaneous aggregate wind output in South Australia
Hot in Queensland today (Saturday 13th January 2018 with high demand, and volatility) but hotter still tomorrow
A quick review of a hot and sticky day in Queensland that saw high levels of demand reached on a Saturday – with demand peaks tomorrow forecast to be just as high (on a Sunday!). Today saw the first major price spikes in the Queensland region of summer.
A stinking hot weekend poses a reminder of the difficulty of forecasting electricity demand
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
It’ll be hot in parts of the NEM tomorrow (Saturday 6th Jan) but don’t expect demand to be too high – and don’t be trigger happy on the Emergency Demand Response!
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Still a long way to go before wind forecasting models are as good as they will need to be as installed capacity grows….
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
Afternoon “Scheduled Demand” in Victoria on Christmas Day drops as low as overnight demand
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
Hot weather sees NSW demand at 13,000MW and NEM-wide demand above 31,000MW
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
NSW demand currently forecast to peak up at 13,500MW on Tuesday 19th December
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
Coincident warm demand forecast for VIC and NSW tomorrow late afternoon (Monday 18th December)
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
“Scheduled Demand” in Victoria stopped short of 8,500MW today (lower than forecast) but the demand peak forecast for NSW tomorrow has grown to almost 13,000MW
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.