Evening volatility in QLD and NSW (and low IRPM) on Monday evening 11th November 2024
Monday evening 11th November 2024 sees volatility return in QLD initially, and soon also in NSW.
Market Operations
Reviewing the ‘N-MNYS_5_WG_CLOSE’ Constraint Set, as a major factor in recent northern volatility
As time permits, we’re chipping away at an exploration of the volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday 7th November 2024. In this article we take another step in understanding the ‘N-MNYS_5_WG_CLOSE ’ constraint set.
A much shorter run of evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Friday 8th November 2024
There were not as many SMS pings on Friday 8th November 2024 as there were for price alerts the day before, with the only 4 dispatch intervals in QLD and NSW above $1,000/MWh.
A view of the extracted Mainland Frequency trace on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024 (Part 2)
Yesterday, amongst the volatility, we also wrote about a ‘Small (NEM Mainland) frequency wobble, on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024’. As a stepping stone to further analysis, we extracted data from around that time and present the two charts.
Three dispatch intervals (sampled from a long run of volatility on Thursday 7th November 2024) to illustrate the complexity (and significance) of congestion
We’ve selected three dispatch intervals through the long run of volatility in the QLD and NSW regions on Thursday 7th November 2024 to help illustrate:
1) How the issue of ‘congestion’ or ‘constraints’ in the NEM is so complex;
2) But also why it’s so significant to price and dispatch outcomes.
VIC1-NSW1 interconnector unable to Target Flow north, on Thursday afternoon-evening 7th November 2024
A quick summary about the presence of constraints limiting the ability of the southern regions to help, via the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector, on Thursday 7th November 2024.
Late afternoon and Evening run of volatility in NSW and QLD, on Thursday 7th November 2024
It was a hot and sweaty walk home from the Brisbane office late this afternoon, accompanied by the incessant buzzing of my phone … due to the run of volatility in NSW and QLD we forecast in this morning’s article.
Small (NEM Mainland) frequency wobble, on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024
Perhaps contributing to the early start to price volatility in NSW this afternoon was the wobble in system frequency shown here?
Price volatility starts early, on Thursday 7th November 2024
An earlier-than-expected spike in spot price in NSW on Thursday afternoon 7th November 2024.
Possibility of volatility in QLD and NSW on Thursday evening 7th November 2024
A quick look in the morning of Thursday 7th November 2024 utilizing this collage of 4 different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 08:35 dispatch interval looking forward to this evening.
Early evening volatility in QLD and NSW on Wednesday 6th November 2024
Here’s a snapshot of NEMwatch at the 17:50 dispatch interval (NEM time) highlighting evening volatility in the QLD and NSW regions as we pass beyond sunset on this warm-for-November day.
Mainland frequency wobbles, on Wednesday 6th November 2024
A very short article for Wednesday 6th November 2024, such that we might follow up later, to note the following two wobbles in frequency in the mainland NEM today
Significant drop in ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia on Tuesday afternoon 5th November 2024
A short record of a significant drop of ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia on Tuesday afternoon 5th November 2024 … down 710MW (or 60% of the initial value) in 20 minutes.
The effect of the ‘S_PPT+SNPT+BLVR_220’ Constraint Equation on Monday 23rd September 2024 (Part 4 of a Case Study)
In Part 4 of this Case Study (with respect to spot price volatility in South Australia on Monday 23rd September 2024) we take a detailed look at the ‘S_PPT+SNPT+BLVR_220’ Constraint Equation, which was particularly meaningful in terms of dispatch outcomes…
LOR2 notices continue to flash for NSW and QLD for this Thursday 7th Nov 2024
A quick look at market notices and our forecast convergence widget in ez2view, to check in with projected tight market conditions this coming Thursday in NSW and QLD.
Frank Calabria speaks at CEDA, on Monday 4th November 2024
Frank Calabria (CEO of Origin) spoke at a CEDA Lunch in Sydney on Monday 4th November 2024. Here’s what he said.
Reviewing 12 dispatch intervals in South Australia on Monday 23rd September 2024 (Part 3 of a Case Study)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look specifically at the 12 dispatch intervals at the start of the ‘Evening blast of spot price volatility in South Australia on Monday 23rd September 2024’ … roughly 6 weeks ago.
AEMO issues forecast MSL2 for VIC on Sunday 10th November 2024
At 08:53 on Monday morning 4th November 2024, AEMO published MN119852 looking forwards to this coming Sunday 10th November 2024 and a (first ever?) forecast MSL2 condition for Victoria.
Taking a look inside South Australia’s lengthy run of volatility on Monday 23rd September 2024 (Part 2 of a Case Study)
There was an ‘Evening blast of spot price volatility in South Australia on Monday 23rd September 2024’ … roughly 6 weeks ago. Today, for several reasons, we start to take a closer look.
AEMO notifies of Actual MSL1 in Victoria, on Sunday 3rd November 2024
I’m not sure we’ve ever had an Actual MSL1 event before, so worth a quick note referencing Market Notice MN119760 published at 11:49 noting an Actual MSL1 in Victoria.