Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in 'Market Demand'.
Eventful Days
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
'Market Demand' has ramped back up, leading to an 'Actual LOR2' low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW 'Market Demand' exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO 'intending to commence' negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW - for this afternoon/evening.
RERT negotiations commenced in NSW by AEMO on Thursday 14th December 2023
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ peaks above 30,000MW on Friday 8th December 2023 … first time since July
The NEM-wide demand peaked (just!) above 30GW on Friday afternoon/evening 8th December 2023.
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by...
Case Study – Severe Weather Challenges Day-Ahead Forecasts for 7, 8, 9 September 2023
A bout of severe weather for many parts of south-eastern Australia brought challenging weather conditions which appear to have impacted variable renewable energy forecasts for the NEM. The case study delves into forecast differences...
Rooftop Solar is crushing* the returns for Large-Scale VRE
Following the release of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3 we've chosen to share here one of the clear challenges for large-scale VRE that is emerging (particularly in 2023 Q3) due to the rise...
Thunderstorms in South Australia impact ~30,000 electricity customers on Tuesday 28th November 2023
Thunderstorms impacted parts of South Australia electricity system in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with two syncons tripping and around 30,000 customers experiencing outages.
Case Study (part 1) of Aggregate Scheduled Target on Friday 8th September 2023
The first part of a Case Study looking at a large 5-minute ramp in 'Aggregate Scheduled Target' in the middle of the day (an unusual time) on Friday 8th September 2023
Forecast low System Strength of concern in NSW for Tuesday 14th November 2023 … first time ever?
A quick note about a forecast by AEMO of shortfall in system strength in NSW region for Tuesday 14th November 2023.
Victoria’s ‘Market Demand’ low point drops further–on Sunday 12th November 2023
A quick record of Sun 12th Nov 2023, with 'minimum demand' dropping further in Victoria
A snapshot of Eraring unit 4 on Thursday afternoon 9th Nov 2023
Here's a snapshot of the ‘Unit Dashboard’ widget in ez2view focused on Eraring unit 4 on Thu 9th Nov 2023 to illustrate the impacts of ramp rates in truncating available capacity in the bid.