Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 24 years (v2)
In the early years of the ISP trajectories, we observe coal retirements happening sooner than slated. For example, Accelerated Transition has all coal retired by July 2033.
capacity waterfall
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
Some suggestions for the Nelson Review panel to consider (with respect to Forecasting) following review of the Draft Report
Following my presentation at NEMdev 2025 (on 8th Oct 2025), here are some suggestions that the Nelson Review panel might consider - with respect to forecasting.
Six different lenses to view the ESOO 2025 … giving wildly different perspectives
About 4 weeks ago the 2025 ESOO was released. In this article we highlight 3 x 2 different ways this might be viewed - and note some other dimensions not considered.
Are we *still* not building enough replacement Firming Capacity?
In this third excerpt from GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q2, we share some perspectives about the amount of Firming Capacity projected to be delivered in net terms, to 2028 (given some withdrawals and some additions).
We’re not building enough replacement dispatchable capacity
With completion of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 approaching, and following some conversations recently (and probably this week at EUAA Conference) here are two charts looking backwards just at fully dispatchable plant that highlight one of the ways in which ‘the level of risk...