In the last MT PASA DUID Availability data update for Friday 12th July 2024 the return to service expectation for the repaired Callide C4 unit has been delayed again another 40 days … now 50 days out, till Saturday 31st August 2024.
A quick look at forecast ‘Market Demand’ and NEM-wide IRPM for next week … with Ben Domensino writing about a ‘Ferocious Tasman Low to hit southeast Australia next week’
Five weeks on from the re-start of production at Tamar Valley CCGT, it’s still running (and water storage levels in TAS are still low).
We’ve ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here’s a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
A short (perhaps initial) record of load shedding instructed for NSW on Monday evening 8th July 2024.
Taking the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend recent Q2 periods (used for wind, hydro and gas-fired power), we now apply this to coal-fired generation during 2024 Q2.
Taking the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend recent Q2 periods (used for wind and then hydro), we now apply this to gas-fired generation during 2024 Q2. We see two distinctly different patterns … early in Q2 and late in Q2.
CS Energy has released the latest draft of the ‘Brady Report’ – a draft Executive Summary, a draft Part A (Technical) and a draft Part B (Organisational)
A quick look at the ‘N-DPWG_63_X5’ constraint set as a driver for the curtailment of solar (and other) units in south-western NSW on Monday 24th June 2024.
Taking the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend recent Q2 periods (first used for wind), we now apply this to hydro during 2024 Q2 to see to what extent hydro production volumes are lower than recent (and other notable) years.
Extending the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening … but also completely expected (at least for some).
A short article looking forward to AEMO’s forecast NEM-wide wind capability for the remainder of June 2024.
A short article looking back 90 days at production volumes, and bid prices, from gas-fired generation.
Worth noting that on Friday evening 21st June 2024 Kogan Creek came back online, ~36 hours after it had come offline.
Tarong unit 3 came offline late Friday afternoon 21st June 2024 … we take a quick first look
On Friday 21st June 2024 the unit 2 of Barron Gorge hydro facility has started up – the next step in a repair process following TC Jasper six months ago.
A brief recap on another consecutive evening of low NEM-wide IRPM – on Thursday 20th June 2024.
Amongst other things happening in the past 24 hours, the large Kogan Creek coal-fired power station in southern QLD came offline this morning in an outage that appears anticipated two days prior … but was not fully planned weeks in advance.
In an earlier article today, we identified the 13:20 dispatch interval on Thursday 13th June 2024 was one with very, very low level of wind … in this short article we take a very quick look.
Given what’s happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor across all Wind Farms.