Finding some time to make some progress in compiling GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2024 Q1, here’s a short Case Study of Thursday 22nd February 2024 (a day that saw significant collective under-performance of Semi-Scheduled units with respect to their Targets).
An early afternoon look (Sat 18th May 2024) about the delays in return to service for the forced outages at two NSW coal units (Eraring unit 2 and Vales Point unit 6).
Following numerous Market Notices overnight pertaining to Forecast LOR2 (or LOR1) in NSW for a number of coming days, here’s a summary on Saturday morning 18th May 2024 using ‘Forecast Convergence’ from ez2view.
On Friday 17th May, CS Energy posted a video on YouTube showing a timelapse camera view of some of the repair process for Callide C4. This will be of interest to some WattClarity readers.
Another ‘forecast LOR2’ notice from AEMO … this time looking at Sunday evening 19th may 2024.
A quick look at the trip of Vales Point unit 6 on Friday afternoon 17th May 2024.
An update (via Market Notice at 11:21) on the forecast LOR2 for NSW for Monday morning 20th May 2024.
An update on LinkedIn by an electricity retail broker (Choice Energy) prompts this update on NSW electricity futures price movements.
A new data update from AEMO confirms the suspicion that (based on current expectations) Eraring unit 2 is now offline until Tuesday 21st May 2024.
Following several changes in the forecast for Monday morning 20th May 2024, the AEMO has issued a ‘forecast LOR2’ notice.
Yesterday afternoon (Thu 16th May) Eraring unit 2 commenced return to service. But it hit a snag that evening, came offline, and might be off for a few more days?
On Thursday afternoon 16th May 2024, Eraring unit 2 (after a 15-day outage due to a boiler tube leak) has commenced the return-to-service process.
Following an article yesterday about ‘another challenging week for VRE NEM-wide, we take a quick look at forecasts for the coming 7 days and see low wind persisting.
On Wednesday evening 15th May 2024, Anthony Macdonald published an update about Callide C4 in the AFR that’s worth a read.
Coincidentally today, David Osmond has posted about ‘another challenging week’ for VRE NEM-wide (a week beginning Wed 8th May 2024 – the day NSW hit the Cumulative Price Threshold).
Following a reminder in a phone call today, I’ve updated the date range in a NEMreview trend previously used in February to look at percentage of Underlying Demand in NSW supplied for each half hour over the 5 day period Monday 6th May 2024 to Friday 10th May 2024 (which includes 3 volatile periods leading to Administered Pricing).
Today (Wed 15th May 2024) Bruce Mountain writes an opinion piece in the Australian about the recent run of Administered Pricing in NSW, and what it means for the looming closure of Eraring and the energy transition.
as expected, Administered Pricing has ended in NSW at 04:00 on Wednesday 15th May 2024
A short (early afternoon) look at the progression of Cumulative Price in NSW, almost 7 days after the evening volatility on Tuesday 7th May 2024 started the climb to the Cumulative Price Threshold.
Also on social media was a comment by Jess Hunt about low wind conditions in South Australia currently … which has prompted these thoughts.