Forecast evening IRPM next week healthy … despite ‘ferocious Tasman Low’
A quick look at forecast ‘Market Demand’ and NEM-wide IRPM for next week … with Ben Domensino writing about a ‘Ferocious Tasman Low to hit southeast Australia next week’
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
Tamar Valley CCGT clocks over 5 weeks of almost continuous operation at full load in Winter 2024 … but hydro storages still not great
Five weeks on from the re-start of production at Tamar Valley CCGT, it’s still running (and water storage levels in TAS are still low).
Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We’ve ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here’s a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
AEMO directs load shedding (following unplanned network outages) in NSW on Monday evening 8th July 2024
A short (perhaps initial) record of load shedding instructed for NSW on Monday evening 8th July 2024.
A similar trended view of the aggregate production from Coal-Fired Generation across the NEM through 2024 Q2
Taking the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend recent Q2 periods (used for wind, hydro and gas-fired power), we now apply this to coal-fired generation during 2024 Q2.
A similar trended view of the aggregate production from Gas-Fired Generation across the NEM through 2024 Q2
Taking the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend recent Q2 periods (used for wind and then hydro), we now apply this to gas-fired generation during 2024 Q2. We see two distinctly different patterns … early in Q2 and late in Q2.
CS Energy releases most recent draft of the ‘Brady Report’
CS Energy has released the latest draft of the ‘Brady Report’ – a draft Executive Summary, a draft Part A (Technical) and a draft Part B (Organisational)
Solar Farms in south-western NSW constrained to 0MW on Monday 24th June 2024
A quick look at the ‘N-DPWG_63_X5’ constraint set as a driver for the curtailment of solar (and other) units in south-western NSW on Monday 24th June 2024.
A similar trended view of the aggregate production from Hydro Discharge across the NEM through 2024 Q2
Taking the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend recent Q2 periods (first used for wind), we now apply this to hydro during 2024 Q2 to see to what extent hydro production volumes are lower than recent (and other notable) years.
Where’s the wind gone, through 2024 Q2? … with June perhaps even worse than April or May!
Extending the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening … but also completely expected (at least for some).
Forecast for a moderate burst of wind to round out the month or June 2024
A short article looking forward to AEMO’s forecast NEM-wide wind capability for the remainder of June 2024.
Trended bids (and production) from gas-fired generation over the past 90 days
A short article looking back 90 days at production volumes, and bid prices, from gas-fired generation.
Kogan Creek back online, late Friday 21st June 2024
Worth noting that on Friday evening 21st June 2024 Kogan Creek came back online, ~36 hours after it had come offline.
Tarong unit 3 comes offline late Friday afternoon 21st June 2024 – appears not planned in advance
Tarong unit 3 came offline late Friday afternoon 21st June 2024 … we take a quick first look
Barron Gorge Unit 2 gets a run, on Friday 21st June 2024
On Friday 21st June 2024 the unit 2 of Barron Gorge hydro facility has started up – the next step in a repair process following TC Jasper six months ago.
190 minutes of low IRPM (reaching 11.01% at 18:05) on Thursday evening 20th June 2024
A brief recap on another consecutive evening of low NEM-wide IRPM – on Thursday 20th June 2024.
Kogan Creek comes offline, on Thursday 20th June 2024
Amongst other things happening in the past 24 hours, the large Kogan Creek coal-fired power station in southern QLD came offline this morning in an outage that appears anticipated two days prior … but was not fully planned weeks in advance.
A brief review of the (only!) 88MW of wind output NEM-wide at 13:20 on Thursday 13th June 2024
In an earlier article today, we identified the 13:20 dispatch interval on Thursday 13th June 2024 was one with very, very low level of wind … in this short article we take a very quick look.
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what’s happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor across all Wind Farms.
AEMO publishes ‘East Coast Gas System Risk or Threat Notice’
On Wednesday 19th June 2024 the AEMO has published this ‘East Coast Gas System Risk or Threat Notice’.