Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
The NSW dispatch energy price jumped to 17,560 $/MWh in the 16:50 dispatch interval on 28 May, 2025.
The measurements indicated frequency ducked just below the NOFB briefly, reaching 49.843 Hz.
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
In this article we delve into the indicators we can uncover which point to the increase in market interventions and generator directions over recent years.
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
At 16:01 on April 10, 2025, a system frequency dip was observed from the Global-Roam frequency logger.
High speed frequency measurements provide a deeper understanding of how the system responded to the unplanned 500kV line outage.
By day-end on the Friday the 7th demand levels were down more than 40% in the Gold Coast. Other areas were also impacted.
We thank the Clean Energy Council for the opportunity to share insights into revenue trends, cost trends, and analysis of upcoming changes for units operating in the NEM.
AWEFS and ASEFS dispatch availability forecast systems experienced what looks to be an outage and we uncover how the 'SCADA' origin filled the gap.
The notice informs us that an update to the Yass overload trip scheme means it is now managing flows on lines 990, 991 and 970 132kV in both directions.
This article reviews regulation FCAS costs in 2024, relative to maximum capacity, and uncovers drivers behind high non-scheduled unit costs.
The introduction of frequency performance payments in 2025 changes how costs of regulating frequency are quantified and allocated. This article inspects historical trends in regulation FCAS enablement levels and prices.
The faster-moving nature of the FM, with the introduction of FPP, removes predictability in the indicator for frequency performance.
Full financial operation commences 8 June 2025.