Volatile price period runs over 5 hours on 2 July 2025 in SA
If we had been in the previous financial year, the old CPT of $1,573,700 would have been tripped.
If we had been in the previous financial year, the old CPT of $1,573,700 would have been tripped.
Spot price volatility occurs in SA on 2 July 2025, yet not to the level that risks exceeding the cumulative price threshold.
Under the new direction proposed, netting off would be applied to allocate IRSR. The proposal is open for feedback until 10 July 2025.
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Another run of energy spot price volatility occurred on Friday 27th June 2025.
WDR capacity has increased by 23 MW since our last look, and much of it happened recently.
System frequency shows improved resilience to sudden coal generation events since 2020.
A count of coal generator events indicates large unit trips are less frequent.
In reviewing system frequency on the 16th of June, 2025, we observed a drop that reached below the NOFB.
Wednesday evening 11th June 2025 was a period of tight supply-demand balance, hence energy price volatility – and so this article reviews the response of the demand-side.
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
The NSW dispatch energy price jumped to 17,560 $/MWh in the 16:50 dispatch interval on 28 May, 2025.
The measurements indicated frequency ducked just below the NOFB briefly, reaching 49.843 Hz.
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
In this article we delve into the indicators we can uncover which point to the increase in market interventions and generator directions over recent years.