Volatile price period runs over 5 hours on 2 July 2025 in SA
If we had been in the previous financial year, the old CPT of $1,573,700 would have been tripped.
Articles by Linton Corbet
Linton is a Senior Software Engineer and Market Analyst, who joined Global-Roam in August 2020.
Before joining the company, Linton worked at the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) for seven years, including four years as an analyst within their demand forecasting team. Before entering the energy sector, he worked as an air quality scientist in the Czech Republic.
Evening spot prices less volatile than anticipated in SA on July 2, 2025
Spot price volatility occurs in SA on 2 July 2025, yet not to the level that risks exceeding the cumulative price threshold.
Directions Paper adjusts approach to loop IRSR
Under the new direction proposed, netting off would be applied to allocate IRSR. The proposal is open for feedback until 10 July 2025.
East coast low brings challenging conditions for start of July in 2025
The weather forecasts are alerting to the formation of an East Coast Low this week. The low is expected to sit just off the eastern cost of Australia, adjacent New South Wales.
Evening volatility on Friday 27th June 2025
Another run of energy spot price volatility occurred on Friday 27th June 2025.
Wholesale Demand Response Capacity in June 2025
WDR capacity has increased by 23 MW since our last look, and much of it happened recently.
Frequency change associated with coal generation events
System frequency shows improved resilience to sudden coal generation events since 2020.
The frequency of coal generation events in 2025
A count of coal generator events indicates large unit trips are less frequent.
Drop in mainland frequency on 16 June 2025
In reviewing system frequency on the 16th of June, 2025, we observed a drop that reached below the NOFB.
An initial review of demand response on Wednesday 11 June 2025
Wednesday evening 11th June 2025 was a period of tight supply-demand balance, hence energy price volatility – and so this article reviews the response of the demand-side.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 5 – afternoon underestimations
A sequence of afternoon intervals stand out because the forecast appeared to be biased low – self-forecasts suddenly dropped roughly 30-40 percentage points and then increased a short time later.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 4 – avoiding SDC periods
Theoretically, if a self-forecasting system never offers forecasts for more than 60% of intervals it may perpetually skip the performance assessment and the system could continue for use unsuppressed.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Price volatility in NSW on 28 May, 2025
The NSW dispatch energy price jumped to 17,560 $/MWh in the 16:50 dispatch interval on 28 May, 2025.
Drop in mainland system frequency on 26 May 2025
The measurements indicated frequency ducked just below the NOFB briefly, reaching 49.843 Hz.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Directions up to almost five a day
In this article we delve into the indicators we can uncover which point to the increase in market interventions and generator directions over recent years.