A quick note, on Monday morning 20th October 2025, with more articles probably coming later.
Here’s the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at 10:45 (NEM time) showing the re-emergence of price forecasts up near the Market Price Cap for a 90-120 minute period this afternoon/evening:
Remember that this widget allows one to ‘look up a vertical’ in order to ‘see that other dimension of time’.
Forecast demand levels for NSW on Monday 20th and Wednesday 22nd October
Flipping to ‘chart view’ and adding a second copy of the widget to show both ‘Market Demand’ and Forecast LORx Condition shows this:
We can see that:
1) For this afternoon/evening:
(a) The forecast ‘Market Demand’ for NSW this evening is looking quite steady at the ~11,500MW level; and
(b) There’s also a pretty stead forecast LOR2
2) Also notable for Wednesday 22nd October 2025 that:
(a) The forecast ‘Market Demand’ for NSW is a bit higher … at the ~12,000MW level; and
(b) There’s also a pretty stead forecast LOR2
AEMO notices
So it’s no wonder that (amongst the bunch of Market Notices this morning) we see MN129829 at 10:10:55
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 20/10/2025 10:10:55
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Notice ID : 129829
Notice Type ID : MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description : Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date : 20/10/2025
External Reference : Update – Foreseeable AEMO intervention in NSW region
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Update – Foreseeable AEMO intervention in NSW region
Refer AEMO Electricity Market Notice 129826
AEMO has identified a foreseeable circumstance that may require an AEMO intervention event in the NSW region from 1630 hrs 20/10/2025.
The foreseeable circumstance requiring the need for intervention is Reliability.
AEMO estimates that, in the absence of sufficient market response by 1605 hrs 20/10/2025, AEMO may need to intervene by issuing a direction.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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That one followed MN129828 at 10:09:54 as follows:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 20/10/2025 10:09:54
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Notice ID : 129828
Notice Type ID : RECALL GEN CAPACITY
Notice Type Description : Recall Gen Capacity
Issue Date : 20/10/2025
External Reference : Request for Generator Recall Information for the period 20/10/2025 for Region NSW
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 129826.
Please provide Generator Recall Information for the period 20/10/2025, by 13:00 hrs on 20/10/2025 via the Generator Recall communication system, in accordance with clause 4.8.5A of the National Electricity Rules.
SO_OP_3719 Procedure for Submitting Generator Outage Recall Information is available at:
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/security_and_reliability/power_system_ops/procedures/so_op_3719-procedure-for-submitting-recall-information-scheduled-generator-outages.pdf?rev=ffdda25d8c12434391449cb96d8da0fd
Procedure on how to use Generator Recall in the EMMS Markets Portal is available at
http://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/IT-Systems-and-Change/2018/Guide-to-Generator-Recall-Plans.pdf
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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