A series of articles beginning several days before Thursday 14th December 2023 (where forecasts were published of LOR2 low reserve condition for NSW), leading into what actually happened on the day.
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Read MoreA quick look at how restrictions in southern NSW meant that Victoria could not export to NSW through the afternoon … hence contributing to the tight supply-demand situation.
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in ‘Market Demand’.
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.