Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO, which alludes to the inherent difficulty of electricity market forecasting.
Read MoreThe forecast for Friday (3 February 2023) evening’s demand was that a new all-time maximum would occur and a lack of reserve was expected. To maintain the grid in a reliable operating state AEMO signaled to the market that the…
(Not even) close … but no cigar. Actual level of Market Demand in QLD for 17:30 is about 10% below what the most extreme forecast thought it might be.
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Second price spike in QLD today above $1,000/MWh … with more to continue?
With demand beginning to rise sharply output at Queensland’s four wind farms has been muted so far this afternoon.
The rain and cloud cover is delivering (amongst other things) a faster-than-expected drop in aggregate solar production in QLD.
The RERT has been dispatched for 5:30PM this afternoon in Queensland
QLD may be down 200MW of available generation with record demand currently being forecast for late this afternoon.
Another article today presenting 12 hours of history of System Frequency (to ~14:00 on Friday 3rd February 2023) with a few questions added. Comments welcome!
An AEMO market notice from yesterday afternoon declares that an extra 50MW has been made available on the QNI interconnector.
AEMO starts the Reserve Trader process for the QLD region this evening (Fri 3rd Feb 2023).
A quick article for Friday (3rd Feb 2023) morning, looking ahead to this evening and what AEMO’s current forecasts are saying for this evening.
A quick Thursday morning look at changing forecasts for Friday evening in QLD.
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.